ABSTRACT A relatively large body of research emphasizes the vital role of the tenure of leaders in explaining conflict behavior. In some accounts, new leaders are more likely to be attacked than their more seasoned counterparts. But are all new leaders equally susceptible to challenge? This research note argues that a key characteristic of leaders – whether or not they have combat experience prior to assuming office – influences their exposure to attacks from abroad. Analyses of dyadic interactions, 1900–2001, reveal that new leaders with combat experience are almost three times more likely to be targeted than leaders without a history of combat. Moreover, while time in office tends to increase the likelihood of conflict involvement generally, for leaders with combat experience, the risk of conflict declines across their tenure.

中文翻译：

---

欢迎来到丛林：有关领导者入伍，战斗经验和针对性争端的研究记录

摘要相对大量的研究强调了领导者任期在解释冲突行为中的重要作用。在某些情况下，新领导人要比经验丰富的领导人更有可能遭到攻击。但是所有新领导人同样容易受到挑战吗？该研究报告认为，领导者的关键特征（无论他们在上任之前是否有战斗经验）会影响他们遭受国外攻击的可能性。对1900-2001年二元互动的分析表明，具有战斗经验的新领导者成为目标的可能性比没有战斗历史的领导者高将近三倍。此外，虽然上班时间通常会增加冲突参与的可能性，但对于具有战斗经验的领导者而言，在任职期间冲突的风险会下降。