Can aid create political trust in conflict-affected states? International aid organizations often argue that supporting states in providing basic services can contribute to strengthening state–society relations. Previous studies in international development have indicated that the provision of basic services can indeed improve people’s attitudes towards state institutions. We take this research a step further: in addition to analysing the impact of aid on political trust, we assess how violence influences this effect. We argue that aid can create opportunities for constructive state–society interactions. As violence increases, however, development-related interactions are crowded out by security-related ones. Violence also fosters corrupt aid governance, which undermines the positive effects of aid on public perceptions. We analyse this hypothesis with a mixed-methods research design that combines original opinion survey data with qualitative interview material systematically collected in 252 villages of northeast Afghanistan. Based on a combination of (a) quantitative analyses, (b) a comparison of most-similar villages, (c) a systematic comparison of qualitative survey response patterns across levels of insecurity, and (d) an in-depth analysis of interview material on aid and trust in highly insecure areas, we show that violence negatively impacts the relative relevance as well as the quality of aid-related state–society interactions. These findings indicate that international aid agencies should refocus from mainly output-oriented project appraisal, design, and monitoring to a stronger process orientation that maximizes state–society interaction and prevents elite capture in areas exposed to high levels of violence.

中文翻译：

---

发展援助对政治观念的条件影响：东北阿富汗的混合方法证据

援助能否在受冲突影响的国家中建立政治信任？国际援助组织经常争辩说，支持国家提供基本服务可以有助于加强国家与社会的关系。以前的国际发展研究表明，提供基本服务确实可以改善人们对国家机构的态度。我们将这项研究更进一步：除了分析援助对政治信任的影响之外，我们还评估暴力如何影响这种影响。我们认为，援助可以为建设性的国家与社会互动创造机会。但是，随着暴力行为的增加，与发展相关的互动被与安全相关的互动所挤出。暴力还助长了腐败的援助治理，破坏了援助对公众观念的积极影响。我们使用混合方法研究设计来分析此假设，该设计方法将原始民意调查数据与定性采访材料相结合，系统地收集了阿富汗东北部252个村庄的信息。基于（a）定量分析，（b）最相似村庄的比较，（c）跨不安全级别的定性调查响应模式的系统比较，以及（d）访谈材料的深入分析的组合关于高度不安全地区的援助和信任，我们发现暴力对与援助相关的国家与社会互动的相对相关性和质量产生了负面影响。这些发现表明，国际援助机构应将重点从以产出为导向的项目评估，设计，