ABSTRACT

Australian bushfire safety policy does not require mandatory evacuation from bushfire as practiced in North America and other jurisdictions. Australian householders confronted with a bushfire threat must decide whether they remain and defend their property or evacuate. A better understanding of factors that influence householders’ decisions to self-evacuate can inform bushfire safety policy. Studies have identified variables that motivate evacuation from various hazards, including wildfire, but factors shaping the decision processes are not well understood. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a theoretical framework of factors influencing protective response to hazard to analyse the actions of householders affected by two bushfires. Three factors that predict self-evacuation were identified: the perception that evacuation is effective in protecting personal safety; the receipt of official warnings; and perceived threat to property. These findings reinforce the importance of increasing householder awareness and sensitivity to the danger posed by bushfire; the adequacy of people’s bushfire preparedness; the effectiveness of early evacuation in protecting personal safety; and the potential persuasiveness of accurate, relevant and timely official warning messages in influencing safe evacuation from bushfire.

摘要

澳大利亚的丛林大火安全政策不要求像北美和其他司法管辖区那样强制撤离丛林大火。面临丛林大火威胁的澳大利亚家庭必须决定是否留下并保卫自己的财产或撤离。更好地了解影响住户自行撤离决定的因素，可以为丛林大火安全政策提供依据。研究已经确定了促使人们从各种危险（包括野火）中撤离的变量，但是影响决策过程的因素尚不十分清楚。保护行动决策模型（PADM）为影响对灾害的保护性响应的因素提供了理论框架，以分析受两次森林大火影响的居民的行动。确定了预测自我疏散的三个因素：认为疏散对保护人身安全有效；收到官方警告；以及对财产的威胁。这些发现加强了提高住户对丛林大火危险的认识和敏感性的重要性。人民的森林大火准备是否充分；尽早撤离在保护人身安全方面的有效性；以及准确，相关和及时的官方警告消息在影响从森林大火中安全撤离的潜在说服力。尽早撤离在保护人身安全方面的有效性；以及准确，相关和及时的官方警告消息在影响从森林大火安全撤离方面的潜在说服力。尽早撤离在保护人身安全方面的有效性；以及准确，相关和及时的官方警告消息在影响从森林大火中安全撤离的潜在说服力。