ABSTRACT There is no obvious end to the ongoing tragedy that faces the Muslim Rohingya communities of western Myanmar. Yet, with two important international legal cases underway at the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court there are now important opportunities to maintain pressure on Myanmar’s government. Myanmar’s current government – a fusion of militarist, democratic, ethno-nationalist and conservative interests – has consistently sought to downplay the seriousness of the situation. This attitude, and the fraught, but politically effective, nexus between Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) and the military, has done much to encourage a culture of impunity among military and civilian decision-makers. Nevertheless, with crucial national elections scheduled for November 2020, and an economy battered by the global COVID-19 shutdown, Myanmar faces a confluence of grave challenges. Under these conditions, key decision-makers in Naypyitaw may hope that international scrutiny of violence against the Rohingya will fade. Given these court actions, however, this is unlikely. Whatever sympathy we may have for Aung San Suu Kyi’s predicament, she will not recover her reputation. And she will forever face hard questions about her inability to prevent, and, more importantly, refusal to condemn, ethnic cleansing.

中文翻译：

---

罗兴亚危机和问责问题

摘要 缅甸西部穆斯林罗兴亚社区所面临的持续悲剧没有明显的结束。然而，随着国际法院和国际刑事法院正在审理两起重要的国际法律案件，现在有重要机会向缅甸政府施加压力。缅甸现任政府——军国主义、民主、民族主义和保守利益的融合——一直试图淡化局势的严重性。这种态度，以及昂山素季的全国民主联盟 (NLD) 与军队之间令人担忧但在政治上有效的联系，在很大程度上鼓励了军队和文职决策者的有罪不罚文化。尽管如此，由于关键的全国选举定于 2020 年 11 月举行，以及受到全球 COVID-19 停工打击的经济，缅甸面临着一系列严峻挑战。在这种情况下，内比都的主要决策者可能希望国际社会对罗兴亚人的暴力行为进行审查。然而，鉴于这些法庭诉讼，这不太可能。无论我们对昂山素季的困境有什么同情，她都不会恢复她的声誉。她将永远面临关于她无法预防，更重要的是拒绝谴责种族清洗的难题。无论我们对昂山素季的困境有什么同情，她都不会恢复她的声誉。她将永远面临关于她无法预防，更重要的是拒绝谴责种族清洗的难题。无论我们对昂山素季的困境有什么同情，她都不会恢复她的声誉。她将永远面临关于她无法预防，更重要的是拒绝谴责种族清洗的难题。