ABSTRACT In the past, population growth in Australia's Northern Territory, as in other peripheral parts of high-income countries, has been driven by internal labour migration and migration from outside of Australia. These have been contributing to the high population turnover experienced in peripheral areas. Since 2010, the Northern Territory has experienced low (and even negative) population growth, and public policy is currently focused on migration as a lever to reverse this trend. However, the extent to which the characteristics of migrants influence the potential for longer-term population growth is poorly understood. This paper uses a new method to analyse the contributions of various types of migrants to both population turnover and retention. Two major sets of findings emerge: First, the significance of separating newer in-migrants from longer-term residents when analysing migration patterns; and secondly, the contribution of age, gender, Indigenous status, international origin, wages and industry of employment to the Northern Territory's population turnover. The research suggests that current forms of migration favour people who are likely to stay for only short periods, and have high wage demands. The main policy inference is that long-term population growth will likely not eventuate unless new forms of migration can be stimulated.

中文翻译：

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模拟澳大利亚北领地的人口保留率——当前的移民形式如何促进人口流动和保留？

摘要 过去，与高收入国家其他周边地区一样，澳大利亚北领地的人口增长是由内部劳务移民和来自澳大利亚境外的移民推动的。这些都导致了周边地区人口流动率高。自 2010 年以来，北领地经历了低（甚至负）的人口增长，目前公共政策的重点是将移民作为扭转这一趋势的杠杆。然而，人们对移民特征对长期人口增长潜力的影响程度知之甚少。本文使用一种新方法来分析各类移民对人口流动和保留的贡献。出现了两组主要的发现：首先，在分析移民模式时将新移民与长期居民区分开的重要性；其次，年龄、性别、原住民身份、国际血统、工资和就业行业对北领地人口流动的贡献。研究表明，当前的移民形式有利于那些可能只停留很短时间并且对工资要求很高的人。主要的政策推论是，除非可以刺激新的移民形式，否则长期人口增长可能不会发生。研究表明，当前的移民形式有利于那些可能只停留很短时间并且对工资要求很高的人。主要的政策推论是，除非可以刺激新的移民形式，否则长期人口增长可能不会发生。研究表明，当前的移民形式有利于那些可能只停留很短时间并且对工资要求很高的人。主要的政策推论是，除非可以刺激新的移民形式，否则长期人口增长可能不会发生。