ABSTRACT The number of missing women in the population of Pakistan in 2015 amounted to approximately 4.4 million. The age distribution of this male surplus (i.e. in the 40+ population) suggests that the collective exposure of selected birth cohorts to deleterious events (i.e. conflicts and natural disasters) may have precipitated a surge in female vis-a-vis male mortality. To analyse this, this paper first collects gender and age disaggregated (wherever possible) mortality statistics arising from conflicts and natural disasters that have occurred throughout the history of Pakistan (since independence) and evaluates their impact on the sex ratios (male/female) of the population by age. Subsequently, it analyses the historical sex ratio pathway by age to assess how these events may have caused deviations from the pathway. The analysis reveals that conflicts and natural disasters (independently or in the aggregate) have had no impact on the missing women phenomenon in Pakistan and hence cannot explain the surplus of men in the country. Nevertheless, it points to the severity and persistence of the missing women phenomenon in Pakistan, especially among the elderly (60+) population. It also indicates the likely endurance of the phenomenon in future cohorts of elderly population in the country.

中文翻译：

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冲突和自然灾害能解释巴基斯坦老年人的剩余吗？

摘要2015年，巴基斯坦人口中失踪妇女的人数约为440万。男性剩余人口的年龄分布（即40岁以上人口）表明，某些出生队列的集体暴露于有害事件（即冲突和自然灾害），可能导致女性死亡率相对于男性死亡率上升。为了对此进行分析，本文首先收集了由于巴基斯坦整个历史（自独立以来）发生的冲突和自然灾害引起的按性别和年龄分类（尽可能）的死亡率统计数据，并评估了它们对巴基斯坦男女比例（男性/女性）的影响。按年龄划分的人口。随后，它按年龄分析了历史性别比途径，以评估这些事件可能如何导致偏离该途径。分析表明，冲突和自然灾害（无论是单独发生还是在总体上）对巴基斯坦的失踪妇女现象没有影响，因此无法解释该国男子的过剩。尽管如此，它指出了巴基斯坦失踪妇女现象的严重性和持续性，特别是在老年人（60岁以上）人群中。这也表明该现象在该国未来的老年人群中可能会持续存在。