ABSTRACT

We analyse a nationally representative data set from India for the year 2013 in order to provide evidence on how short-term migration is affected by household ownership of land and participation in agricultural activities. We estimate a recursive-bivariate-probit model recognising the simultaneity between short-term migration and the decision to operate the land. The results of the likelihood ratio test imply that it would be incorrect to ignore this simultaneity. Households with less than 1 ha of land and those leasing out land are more likely to have a short-term migrant. Households leaving their land fallow, a common occurrence in South Asia, are also more likely to have a short-term migrant. Moreover, the choice of crops and livestock farming has a significant role to play in the migration decision. Current initiatives to increase coverage of irrigation and facilitate access to formal finance could improve the livelihoods of small and marginal farmers, thereby reducing the probability of distress-related short-term migration.

摘要

我们分析了印度从2013年起具有全国代表性的数据集，以提供证据证明家庭土地所有权和参与农业活动如何影响短期移民。我们估计了一个递归-双变量-概率模型，该模型可识别短期迁移与土地经营决策之间的同时性。似然比检验的结果表明，忽略这种同时性是不正确的。土地不足1公顷的家庭和出租土地的家庭更有可能拥有短期移民。离开土地休假的家庭（在南亚很常见）也更可能有短期移民。此外，农作物和畜牧业的选择在迁移决策中也起着重要作用。