ABSTRACT This paper aimed at estimating the effect of political instability (PI) and terrorism (TERR) on inbound tourism demand in Syria before and after 2011. Utilizing factor analysis and logarithmic regression technique (Cochrane-Orcutt (CO) estimation method), the study revealed that tourism demand is affected negatively by internal rather than external political instability. In general, tourism demand is more sensitive to PI as compared to TERR. Moreover, after the crisis, the impact of PI on tourism demand tends to increase remarkably while that of the TERR diminishes. The results help tourism institutions in developing crisis plans concerning the so-called Arab Spring Revolutions.

中文翻译：

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比较2011年政治危机前后政治动荡和恐怖主义对叙利亚入境旅游需求的影响

摘要本文旨在评估2011年前和之后叙利亚的政治不稳定（PI）和恐怖主义（TERR）对入境旅游需求的影响。利用因子分析和对数回归技术（Cochrane-Orcutt（CO）估计方法）进行研究揭示旅游需求受到内部而不是外部政治动荡的负面影响。通常，与TERR相比，旅游需求对PI更为敏感。此外，危机过后，PI对旅游需求的影响趋于显着增加，而TERR的影响却在减少。这些结果有助于旅游机构制定有关所谓的“阿拉伯春季革命”的危机计划。