ABSTRACT

The use of quantitative methods within realist methodologies are fairly rare. This is perhaps because a realist understanding of the social word as complex and dynamic (messy but not chaotic) does not sit well with traditional variable-based causal analysis which test specific theoretical assumptions, yet cannot account for interaction, moderation and emergence. In this paper, we explore the ontological challenges and epistemological issues which underpin the development of our complex realist approach to quantitative data analysis. We provide an example of its application to a large case-based time-ordered dataset and the resultant discovery of the deep patterns that underlie what happened to similar and different mentally disordered offenders as a consequence of the implementation of a new policy of custody diversion.

摘要

在现实主义方法论中使用定量方法是相当罕见的。这也许是因为，现实主义对社会单词复杂而又动态（混乱而不是混乱）的理解与传统的基于变量的因果分析不能很好地结合在一起，后者分析了特定的理论假设，但却无法解释相互作用，调节和出现。在本文中，我们探讨了本体论挑战和认识论问题，这些挑战为我们复杂的现实主义定量数据分析方法的发展奠定了基础。我们提供了一个示例，说明了如何将其应用到基于大型病例的按时间排序的数据集，以及由此产生的深刻模式的发现，这些模式是实施新的监护权转移政策后对相似和不同的精神错乱罪犯所发生事件的基础。