ABSTRACT

What explains the complex processes of democratization and conflict management? Are new democracies more likely to use peaceful means or engage in militarized means when presented with opportunities to resolve their territorial disputes? In this paper, we hypothesize that democratizing states still engaged in territorial disputes are more likely to attempt conflict management following the transition to democracy to remove flashpoints that the military and other former autocratic regime elements can use to discredit democracy and prevent consolidation of democracy. Depending on the history of past conflict management attempts, newly democratic leaders either continue or break with the past policies of non-democratic leaders, indicating a degree of interdependence in the conflict management process. Using multinomial logistic regression on claim-year dyad data from the Issues Correlates of War project, we find that previous management attempts and democratization interact to make peaceful conflict management more likely when past leaders have been successful in peaceful conflict management, but not with failed peaceful attempts or militarized attempts. Our results indicate that previous arguments overstate the propensity for democratization to spark armed conflict, attempted conflict management is more often peaceful, and current attempts are highly influenced by the history of attempts pursued by past leaders.

摘要

什么解释了民主化和冲突管理的复杂过程？当有机会解决领土争端时，新民主国家是否更有可能使用和平手段或采取军事手段？在本文中，我们假设仍然陷入领土争端的民主化国家更有可能在向民主过渡后尝试冲突管理，以消除军事和其他前专制政权分子可以用来诋毁民主并阻止民主巩固的闪点。根据过去冲突管理尝试的历史，新的民主领导人要么继续或打破非民主领导人的过去政策，这表明冲突管理过程中存在一定程度的相互依赖。对来自战争相关问题项目的索赔年二元数据使用多项逻辑回归，我们发现，当过去的领导人在和平冲突管理方面取得成功时，以前的管理尝试和民主化相互作用使和平冲突管理更有可能，但在和平冲突管理失败时则不然。企图或军事化企图。我们的结果表明，先前的论点夸大了民主化引发武装冲突的倾向，冲突管理的尝试往往是和平的，当前的尝试受到过去领导人所追求的尝试历史的高度影响。我们发现，当过去的领导人在和平冲突管理方面取得成功，而不是和平尝试或军事化尝试失败时，以前的管理尝试和民主化相互作用，使和平冲突管理更有可能发生。我们的结果表明，先前的论点夸大了民主化引发武装冲突的倾向，冲突管理的尝试往往是和平的，当前的尝试受到过去领导人所追求的尝试历史的高度影响。我们发现，当过去的领导人在和平冲突管理方面取得成功，而不是和平尝试或军事化尝试失败时，以前的管理尝试和民主化相互作用，使和平冲突管理更有可能发生。我们的结果表明，先前的论点夸大了民主化引发武装冲突的倾向，冲突管理的尝试往往是和平的，当前的尝试受到过去领导人所追求的尝试历史的高度影响。