ABSTRACT

This article argues that dramatic political change in State A poses a threat to the interests that other states B share with it. The more salient those interests are to State B, the greater the threat posed by domestic political change within State A. Thus major changes in one state place the leaders of formerly friendly states into a domain of losses, motivating risk-seeking behavior in hopes of reversing these losses. Conversely, the new leaders of the state undergoing domestic political change initiate similarly risk-seeking behavior to defend their new endowments. The conflicts that result sow the seeds of long-lasting enmity (rivalry) between former partners. I test this argument in a dataset of rivalry onset during the period 1950–2005 and find evidence that in the wake of dramatic political change in State A, rivalries are most likely to form between A and its close partners.

摘要

本文认为，A 国的剧烈政治变革对其他 B 国与其共享的利益构成了威胁。这些利益对 B 国越显着，A 国国内政治变化构成的威胁就越大。 因此，一国的重大变化将以前友好国家的领导人置于损失领域，激发寻求风险的行为，希望扭转这些损失。相反，正在经历国内政治变革的国家的新领导人会发起类似的冒险行为来捍卫他们的新禀赋。由此产生的冲突在前合作伙伴之间播下了长期敌意（竞争）的种子。我在 1950 年至 2005 年期间竞争开始的数据集中测试了这一论点，并发现证据表明，在 A 国发​​生剧烈的政治变化之后，