ABSTRACT

The article contains the evaluation of indirect impact, and more precisely, effects related to traffic disruptions and the resultant changes in transport accessibility following the occurrence of a flood. The applied purpose of the analysis is to demonstrate the differentiation in spatial traffic distribution and changes regarding (time and potential) accessibility in three flooding scenarios for the Warta Water Region (the scenario 10% and 1% probability of a flood occurrence, and for the total destruction of stopbanks) in Greater Poland. The research showed that the occurrence of disruptions from untypical flooding impacts both the change in spatial distribution of traffic load within the road network and the speed at which its users can travel therein. This indicates the need to simulate various flooding scenarios in order to be better prepared for the occurrence of such a natural disaster.

摘要

本文包含对间接影响的评估，更准确地说，是与交通中断以及洪水发生后交通可达性的相应变化有关的影响。该分析的应用目的是证明在瓦尔塔河水域的三种洪水情景中（发生洪水的概率分别为10％和1％，而在洪水发生的概率为10％和1％的情况下）空间交通分布的差异以及（时间和潜在）可及性方面的变化。波兰大停站的总销毁）。研究表明，非典型洪水造成的干扰影响道路网内交通负荷的空间分布变化及其使用者在其中行驶的速度。