ABSTRACT

This paper explores how climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy pose new systemic financial risks (so-called Green Swans), and the role of central banks in addressing them within their financial stability mandate. It does so by developing a three-layered analytical framework that central banks could use to shape their climate-related monetary and financial policies. First, central banks have already started to revisit their backward-looking risk models for the purpose of integrating forward-looking climate-related risks. Second, given the limitations of existing climate-economy models in a context of radical uncertainty, we argue that future climate scenario analysis should rely on systems-based approaches such as non-equilibrium models and more qualitative tools such as those provided by a socio-technical perspective. However, even these new approaches will not suffice from the perspective of financial stability: climate-related risks will remain largely unhedgeable as long as a system-wide and structural transformation is not undertaken, including an unprecedented level of cooperation between central banks, fiscal authorities, the private and public sectors at large, civil society, and the international community. Third, and as a result of the first two points, embracing climate-related uncertainty means that central banks play a new role: helping to coordinate the policies needed to fight climate change, so as to fulfil their own mandate of financial stability. To this end, we make a few specific policy proposals.

Key policy insights

• Central banks’ traditional risk models do not enable them to identify climate-related systemic risks (Green Swans).

• Adopting new forward-looking and non-equilibrium modelling approaches is necessary to better appreciate the nature of climate-related risks, but it is not sufficient.

• To continue fulfilling their mandate of financial stability over longer time horizons than those traditionally considered, central banks must also get involved in policy coordination to mitigate climate change.

• This includes exploring which policy mixes (fiscal-monetary-prudential) can better address the climate imperatives ahead; considering climate stability as a global public good to be supported through reforms of the international monetary and financial system; and systematizing the integration of long-term sustainability criteria in both private and public sectors.

摘要

本文探讨了气候变化和向低碳经济的过渡如何构成新的系统性金融风险（所谓的绿色天鹅），以及中央银行在其金融稳定任务范围内应对这些风险的作用。通过建立一个三层的分析框架，中央银行可以用来制定与气候相关的货币和金融政策来做到这一点。首先，中央银行已经开始重新审视其前瞻性风险模型，以整合与气候相关的前瞻性风险。其次，鉴于在极端不确定性的背景下现有气候经济模型的局限性，我们认为未来的气候情景分析应依靠基于系统的方法（例如非均衡模型）和更具定性的工具（例如由社会经济学提供的方法）技术角度。然而，不可对冲只要在系统范围和结构转型是没有进行，包括中央银行，财政部门，私营部门和公共部门之间的合作，在大，民间社会前所未有的高度，和国际社会。第三，由于前两点，拥抱与气候相关的不确定性意味着中央银行将发挥新的作用：帮助协调应对气候变化所需的政策，以履行其自身的金融稳定任务。为此，我们提出了一些具体的政策建议。

重要政策见解

• 中央银行的传统风险模型无法使他们识别与气候相关的系统性风险（绿色天鹅）。

• 为了更好地了解与气候有关的风险的本质，有必要采用新的前瞻性和非平衡建模方法，但这还不够。

• 为了在比传统上所认为的更长的时间范围内继续履行其金融稳定的任务，中央银行还必须参与政策协调以缓解气候变化。

• 这包括探讨哪些政策组合（财政，货币，审慎）可以更好地解决未来的气候问题；将气候稳定视为一项全球公共利益，应通过国际货币和金融体系的改革予以支持；以及将长期可持续性标准纳入私营部门和公共部门的系统化。