ABSTRACT

This study performed scenario analysis using the MARKAL modelling framework to assess Thailand’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways over the period 2010–2050, to explore the possibilities of achieving carbon neutrality of the energy system by 2060–2100, in pursuit of a maximum temperature rise of 2°C and 1.5°C by the end of the century. The shift from 2°C pathways to 1.5°C pathways would demand much more effort and pose greater challenges in terms of transformational changes required in the energy supply and demand sectors of Thailand. Carbon neutrality in the energy supply system would be achievable with negative emissions through the adoption of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The strong deployment of renewable energy-based power generation would also aid in the rapid decarbonization of the energy supply sector. The demand sectors would face more challenges requiring rapid and extensive deployment of energy efficient and low carbon technologies. The commercial sector may need to undergo deep decarbonization in the 1.5°C scenarios by 2050 while the industrial and residential sectors will need to curb GHG emissions by a large amount even under 2°C scenarios. The transportation sector would face challenges in shifting from private to public modes of transport, including wide adoption of electric and biofuel vehicles, in order to achieve the 1.5°C target.

Key Policy insights

• The attainment of 2°C and 1.5°C targets demand for a wide scale adoption of BECCS in Thailand resulting in negative emissions in the power sector even before 2050.

• Biomass, solar photovoltaics, and wind power would make up to the largest portion in the total power generation mix of Thailand in the 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios by 2050.

• Achieving carbon neutrality of the energy system by 2060–2100 is a challenging task for Thailand requiring higher investments and supportive policy actions to promote renewables, carbon capture and storage technologies, and energy efficiency enhancements.

摘要

这项研究使用MARKAL建模框架进行了情景分析，以评估2010-2050年间泰国的温室气体（GHG）排放路径，以探索在追求最高温度的情况下，到2060-2100年实现能源系统的碳中和的可能性。到本世纪末，温度分别上升了2°C和1.5°C。从2°C路径到1.5°C路径的转变将需要更多的努力，并就泰国能源供需领域所需的转型变化提出更大的挑战。通过采用带有碳捕集与封存（BECCS）的生物能源，可以实现负排放，从而实现能源供应系统中的碳中和。基于可再生能源的发电的强劲部署也将有助于能源供应部门的快速脱碳。需求部门将面临更多挑战，要求快速，广泛地部署节能和低碳技术。到2050年，商业部门可能需要在1.5°C的情况下进行深度脱碳，而工业和住宅部门甚至在2°C的情况下也需要大量减少温室气体排放。为了实现1.5°C的目标，运输部门将面临从私人运输方式向公共运输方式转变的挑战，包括广泛采用电动和生物燃料车辆。到2050年为5°C的情景，而即使在2°C的情景下，工业和住宅部门也需要大量减少温室气体的排放。为了实现1.5°C的目标，运输部门将面临从私人运输方式向公共运输方式转变的挑战，包括广泛采用电动和生物燃料车辆。到2050年为5°C的情景，而即使在2°C的情景下，工业和住宅部门也需要大量减少温室气体的排放。为了实现1.5°C的目标，运输部门将面临从私人运输方式向公共运输方式转变的挑战，包括广泛采用电动和生物燃料车辆。

重要政策见解

• 达到2°C和1.5°C的目标是在泰国广泛采用BECCS的需求，即使在2050年之前，电力行业的排放仍为负值。

• 到2050年，在2°C和1.5°C情景下，生物质能，太阳能光伏发电和风能将占泰国发电总量的最大比例。

• 对于泰国来说，要在2060年至2100年实现碳中和是一项艰巨的任务，因为泰国需要增加投资和支持性的政策措施，以促进可再生能源，碳捕集与封存技术以及提高能效。