ABSTRACT

Places that are both recovering from violent conflict and dependent on natural recourses face the overlapping challenges of reducing the risk of recurring conflict, promoting economic recovery, and ensuring sustainable environmental management: all challenges exacerbated by climate change. This article examines how climate change alters conflict outcomes and vulnerability in Karamoja, Uganda, a region recovering from decades of intense violence. Drawing upon structured interviews with local government officials, direct observation, semi-structured interviews, and a document review, I demonstrate that while Karamoja has stabilized following a region-wide disarmament, the impacts of climate change, when taken in combination with region-wide changes in land use, have contributed to new forms of localized conflicts including resource-related conflict, theft, and intrahousehold violence. This case, therefore, demonstrates how the cycle of increased vulnerability to climate change due to conflict and increased conflict risk due to low adaptive capacity represents a dangerous and reinforcing feedback loop. Moreover, though climate change is affecting conflict outcomes in Karamoja, those outcomes are far less severe than the region’s past, non-climate-related conflicts. That raises complex questions about how to conceptualize the significance of climate change as a driver of conflict and underscores the need to reconceptualize climate-conflict beyond simply questions of causality.

摘要

正在从暴力冲突中恢复并依赖自然资源的地方面临着降低冲突再次发生风险、促进经济复苏和确保可持续环境管理的重叠挑战：气候变化加剧了所有挑战。本文探讨了气候变化如何改变乌干达卡拉莫贾的冲突结果和脆弱性，该地区正从数十年的激烈暴力中恢复过来。通过对地方政府官员的结构化访谈、直接观察、半结构化访谈和文件审查，我证明虽然卡拉莫贾在区域范围的解除武装后已经稳定，但气候变化的影响，当结合区域范围的土地利用的变化，导致了新形式的局部冲突，包括与资源相关的冲突，盗窃和家庭内部暴力。因此，这个案例表明，冲突导致气候变化脆弱性增加，适应能力低下导致冲突风险增加的循环如何代表一个危险和强化的反馈循环。此外，尽管气候变化正在影响卡拉莫贾的冲突结果，但这些结果远没有该地区过去与气候相关的冲突严重。这引发了关于如何将气候变化作为冲突驱动因素的重要性概念化的复杂问题，并强调需要重新概念化气候冲突，而不仅仅是因果关系问题。展示了冲突导致的气候变化脆弱性增加和适应能力低下导致冲突风险增加的循环如何代表一个危险和强化的反馈循环。此外，尽管气候变化正在影响卡拉莫贾的冲突结果，但这些结果远没有该地区过去与气候相关的冲突严重。这引发了关于如何将气候变化作为冲突驱动因素的重要性概念化的复杂问题，并强调需要重新概念化气候冲突，而不仅仅是因果关系问题。展示了冲突导致的气候变化脆弱性增加和适应能力低下导致冲突风险增加的循环如何代表一个危险和强化的反馈循环。此外，尽管气候变化正在影响卡拉莫贾的冲突结果，但这些结果远没有该地区过去与气候相关的冲突严重。这引发了关于如何将气候变化作为冲突驱动因素的重要性概念化的复杂问题，并强调需要重新概念化气候冲突，而不仅仅是因果关系问题。