ABSTRACT

This paper examines farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioural intentions to implement specific drought risk reduction measures using the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) model. We follow an innovative route by extending a PMT model with a drought experience variable, which, we hypothesize, will influence risk perceptions and the take-up of adaptation measures. In order to do so, we investigated detailed historical drought patterns by looking at the spatial and temporal aspects of drought conditions during crop growing season at the village level. In our extended PMT model, drought experience, as represented by a long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), plays a significant role in predicting farmers' intention to take up adaptation measures. The result reveals that drier conditions significantly increase farmers' behavioural intention to implement adaptation measures against drought risk, which is the key finding of the study. Moreover, our findings show that perceived vulnerability and severity, self-efficacy, and response efficacy are positively and significantly associated with the number of drought risk reduction measures implemented. The findings of our empirical analysis contribute to the effect of cognitive perceptions through a new lens of farmer's personal experience with drought shocks, represented by the state of vegetation or physical environment.

摘要

本文使用保护动机理论 (PMT) 模型研究了农民对风险的认知认知和实施特定干旱风险降低措施的行为意图。我们通过扩展具有干旱经历变量的PMT模型来遵循创新路线，我们认为这会影响风险感知和适应措施的采用。为了做到这一点，我们通过查看村庄层面作物生长季节干旱条件的空间和时间方面来调查详细的历史干旱模式。在我们的扩展 PMT 模型中，以长期归一化植被指数 (NDVI) 为代表的干旱经验在预测农民采取适应措施的意愿方面起着重要作用。结果表明，较干燥的条件显着增加了农民实施应对干旱风险的适应措施的行为意愿，这是该研究的关键发现。此外，我们的研究结果表明，感知的脆弱性和严重性、自我效能和响应效能与实施的减少干旱风险措施的数量呈显着正相关。我们的实证分析结果有助于通过以植被或物理环境状态为代表的农民个人经历干旱冲击的新视角，对认知感知的影响做出贡献。和响应效力与实施的减少干旱风险措施的数量呈显着正相关。我们的实证分析结果有助于通过以植被或物理环境状态为代表的农民个人经历干旱冲击的新视角，对认知感知的影响做出贡献。响应效率与所采取的减少干旱风险措施的数量呈正相关且显着相关。我们的实证分析结果有助于通过以植被或物理环境状态为代表的农民个人经历干旱冲击的新视角，对认知感知的影响做出贡献。