This paper provides an empirical insight into how geopolitical risks impact international tourism demand. An augmented tourism demand function was developed and empirically estimated in line with classical theory for a panel of 16 countries from 2005M1 to 2017M12 through the AMG and CCEMG estimation techniques that address underlying heterogeneity, non‐stationarity, and cross‐sectional dependence. The study further examines the potential moderating effect of covid‐19 outbreak on the relationship between geopolitical risk and tourism by investigating the interactive effect of past outbreaks and geopolitical risks on tourism demand. Additional insight on causal relations between geopolitical risks and tourism demand was obtained using panel bootstrapping technique. The results show that geopolitical risk negatively impacts tourism demand, and that pandemic outbreaks aggravate the negative impact of geopolitical risks on tourism demand. Panel causality outcomes further confirm that geopolitical risk is a significant predictor of tourism demand (captured by either tourism receipts or number of inbound tourists). Our findings confirm that the dynamic attributes of both local and international political environments significantly impact the consumption decision of tourists and the economic performance of tourist destinations. Our recommendation is that pre‐crisis, in proposing policy directions for tourism sector development, policy‐makers should establish crisis management plans to protect the tourism sector. Post‐crisis, policy‐makers should initiate aggressive recovery marketing strategies to re‐establish the image of safety and attractiveness required to reassure potential tourists of the safety of the destination, thereby ensuring return to competitiveness and economic recovery.

中文翻译：

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地缘政治风险和旅游业：来自动态异构面板模型的证据

本文提供了关于地缘政治风险如何影响国际旅游需求的实证见解。通过经典的理论，通过AMG和CCEMG估计技术，针对潜在的异质性，非平稳性和横断面相关性，开发了增强的旅游需求函数，并根据经典理论对16个国家的2005M1至2017M12进行了经验估计。该研究通过调查过去暴发与地缘政治风险对旅游需求的互动影响，进一步研究了covid-19爆发对地缘政治风险与旅游之间关系的潜在调节作用。使用面板引导技术，可以进一步了解地缘政治风险与旅游需求之间的因果关系。结果表明，地缘政治风险会对旅游需求产生负面影响，大流行的爆发加剧了地缘政治风险对旅游需求的负面影响。专家组的因果结果进一步证实，地缘政治风险是旅游需求的重要预测指标（由旅游收入或入境游客数量来确定）。我们的发现证实，本地和国际政治环境的动态属性显着影响游客的消费决策和旅游目的地的经济表现。我们的建议是，危机前，政策制定者在提出旅游业发展的政策方向时，应制定危机管理计划以保护旅游业。危机后