Research from environmental criminology, policing, and related literatures consistently finds that objective conditions related to risk of apprehension affect crime. The mechanism underlying this relationship is not explicitly tested; instead, perceptual deterrence is assumed. In this analysis we explicitly investigate that mechanism. This test is not straightforward, however, as some research shows that risk perceptions are susceptible to various cognitive biases and framing effects. Thus, we advance a framework of sanction risk perception that combines individual and contextual determinants. Specifically, we investigate whether contextual factors materially influence risk perceptions and in turn intentions to offend after accounting for the influence of individual-specific determinants. Our data come from an experimental survey on speeding (N = 1,919). Respondents viewed videos from the driver's perspective of a sedan speeding on a highway and provided estimates of sanction risk, safety perceptions, and behavioral intentions. Although sanction risk and safety perceptions for speeding varied widely across respondents, they remained grounded in the objective conditions of the experimental videos. In turn, citizen perceptions of apprehension risk were comparable with risk estimates elicited from state troopers after viewing the same videos. The results suggest deterrence and safety considerations are important contributing factors that help shape intentions to transgress.

中文翻译：

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制裁风险认知、连贯性和威慑*

环境犯罪学、警务和相关文献的研究一致发现，与逮捕风险相关的客观条件会影响犯罪。这种关系背后的机制没有明确测试；相反，假设存在感知威慑。在本次分析中，我们明确调查了该机制。然而，这项测试并不简单，因为一些研究表明，风险认知容易受到各种认知偏见和框架效应的影响。因此，我们提出了一个结合个人和背景决定因素的制裁风险感知框架。具体而言，我们在考虑了个人特定决定因素的影响后，调查了情境因素是否会对风险感知产生实质性影响，进而对冒犯意图产生重大影响。我们的数据来自一项关于超速的实验调查 (N = 1,919)。受访者从驾驶员的角度观看了一辆轿车在高速公路上超速行驶的视频，并提供了对制裁风险、安全认知和行为意图的估计。尽管受访者对超速的制裁风险和安全认知差异很大，但它们仍以实验视频的客观条件为基础。反过来，公民对逮捕风险的看法与观看相同视频后从州警那里得出的风险估计相当。结果表明，威慑和安全考虑是帮助塑造违法意图的重要因素。和行为意图。尽管受访者对超速的制裁风险和安全认知差异很大，但它们仍以实验视频的客观条件为基础。反过来，公民对逮捕风险的看法与观看相同视频后从州警那里得出的风险估计相当。结果表明，威慑和安全考虑是帮助塑造违法意图的重要因素。和行为意图。尽管受访者对超速的制裁风险和安全认知差异很大，但它们仍以实验视频的客观条件为基础。反过来，公民对逮捕风险的看法与观看相同视频后从州警那里得出的风险估计相当。结果表明，威慑和安全考虑是帮助塑造违法意图的重要因素。