Despite fast growth during 2000–2010, Egypt saw limited productivity gains from sectoral labor reallocation over the past three decades. Using a novel data set and updated measures of productivity growth induced by structural change in employment patterns across a large set of countries, we explain why Egypt failed to significantly reduce unemployment, lower poverty, or raise productivity. We use cross‐country comparisons, counterfactual scenarios, and regression analysis to demonstrate that limited openness to trade, weak export diversification, and low access to finance prevented Egypt from tapping the growth potential of a structural shift in labor towards skilled manufacturing and private services, locking Egypt instead into a “low value trap.” The paper suggests policy implications on how to overcome impediments to efficient sectoral reallocation of workers.

中文翻译：

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成长无变：埃及生产力增长缓慢的故事

尽管在2000年至2010年期间快速增长，但埃及在过去的三十年中因部门劳动力再分配而获得的生产力增长有限。我们使用了一个新颖的数据集和由许多国家的就业模式的结构性变化引发的生产率增长的最新度量，我们解释了埃及为何未能大幅减少失业，降低贫困或提高生产率的原因。我们使用跨国比较，反事实情景和回归分析来证明，贸易开放度有限，出口多元化薄弱以及融资渠道不足，阻止了埃及利用劳动力向熟练制造业和私人服务业结构性转变的增长潜力，而是将埃及锁定在“低价值陷阱”中。