Persistently high levels of unintended fertility, combined with evidence that over- and underachieved fertility are typical and not exceptional, have prompted researchers to question the utility of fertility desires writ large. In this study, we elaborate this paradox: widespread unintendedness and meaningful, highly predictive fertility desires can and do coexist. Using data from Malawi, we demonstrate the predictive validity of numeric fertility timing desires over both four-month and one-year periods. We find that fertility timing desires are highly predictive of pregnancy and that they follow a gradient wherein the likelihood of pregnancy decreases in correspondence with desired time to next birth. This finding holds despite the simultaneous observation of high levels of unintended pregnancy in our sample. Discordance between desires and behaviors reflects constraints to achieving one’s fertility and the fluidity of desires but not their irrelevance. Fertility desires remain an essential—if sometimes blunt—tool in the demographers’ toolkit.

中文翻译：

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生育愿望的持久理由


持续高水平的意外生育，加上有证据表明，生育率过高和不足是典型现象，并非例外，促使研究人员对生育欲望的效用提出质疑。在这项研究中，我们阐述了这个悖论：普遍的无意识和有意义的、高度预测的生育欲望可以而且确实共存。使用马拉维的数据，我们证明了四个月和一年期间生育时间愿望数字的预测有效性。我们发现，生育时间愿望高度预测怀孕，并且它们遵循一个梯度，其中怀孕的可能性随着期望的下一次出生时间而降低。尽管在我们的样本中同时观察到高水平的意外怀孕，但这一发现仍然成立。欲望和行为之间的不一致反映了实现生育能力的限制和欲望的流动性，但并不是它们的无关性。生育欲望仍然是人口统计学家工具包中的一个重要工具（尽管有时有些生硬）。