The U.S. period total fertility rate has declined steadily since the Great Recession, reaching 1.73 children in 2018, the lowest level since the 1970s. This pattern could mean that current childbearing cohorts will end up with fewer children than previous cohorts, or this same pattern could be an artifact of a tempo distortion if individuals are simply postponing births they plan to eventually have. In this research note, we use data on current parity and future intended births from the 2006–2017 National Survey of Family Growth to shed light on this issue. We find that total intended parity declined (from 2.26 in 2006–2010 to 2.16 children in 2013–2017), and the proportion intending to remain childless increased slightly. Decomposition indicates that the decline was not due to changes in population composition but rather changes in the subgroups’ rates themselves. The decline in intended parity is particularly notable at young ages and among those who are Hispanic. These results indicate that although tempo distortion is likely an important contributor to the decline in TFR, it is not the sole explanation: U.S. individuals are intending to have fewer children than their immediate predecessors, which may translate into a decline in cohort completed parity. However, the change in intended parity is modest, and average intended parity remains above two children.

中文翻译：

---

美国生育意愿的近期趋势

美国期间总和生育率自大衰退以来稳步下降，2018年达到1.73个孩子，为1970年代以来的最低水平。这种模式可能意味着当前的生育队列最终会比以前的队列生育更少的孩子，或者如果个人只是推迟他们计划最终拥有的生育，这种模式可能是节奏扭曲的产物。在本研究报告中，我们使用 2006-2017 年全国家庭增长调查中的当前生育率和未来预期生育数据来阐明这个问题。我们发现，计划生育的总人数有所下降（从 2006-2010 年的 2.26 名下降到 2013-2017 年的 2.16 名），并且计划生育的比例略有增加。分解表明，下降不是由于人口构成的变化，而是由于亚组比率本身的变化。在年轻人和西班牙裔人群中，预期均价的下降尤其显着。这些结果表明，虽然节奏失真可能是 TFR 下降的一个重要原因，但这并不是唯一的解释：美国个人打算比他们的前辈少生孩子，这可能会转化为队列完成胎次下降。然而，预期胎次变化不大，平均预期胎次仍高于两个孩子。这些结果表明，虽然节奏失真可能是 TFR 下降的一个重要原因，但这并不是唯一的解释：美国个人打算比他们的前辈少生孩子，这可能会转化为队列完成胎次下降。然而，预期胎次变化不大，平均预期胎次仍高于两个孩子。这些结果表明，虽然节奏失真可能是 TFR 下降的一个重要原因，但这并不是唯一的解释：美国个人打算比他们的前辈少生孩子，这可能会转化为队列完成胎次下降。然而，预期胎次变化不大，平均预期胎次仍高于两个孩子。