The UK population is predicted to grow from 65m in 2015 to 71m in 2030 and 75m in 2040, with the number aged 65-plus rising to 18m. Successive governments have been reluctant to increase taxes but this looks increasingly unsustainable, if the increasing demand for health and social care is to be met. Increasing state pension age is the customary response for keeping pension contributions and benefits in balance in Pay As You Go (PAYG systems). However, this policy raises concerns about the capability of people to work to ever higher pension ages. Using newly available labour market data on health and disability, the paper finds limits to how far pension age can be increased without necessary health improvements. If improvements were forthcoming, planned pension age rises could be postponed. However, inequalities in healthy life expectancy across the UK are a major barrier to its achievement.

中文翻译：

---

通过改善健康状况和积极老龄化延缓提高国家退休金年龄

预计英国人口将从2015年的6500万增长到2030年的7100万和2040年的7500万，年龄在65岁以上的人口将增加到1800万。历届政府都不愿增加税收，但如果要满足对健康和社会护理不断增长的需求，这看起来就越来越不可持续。延长州养老金年龄是一种习惯性的应对措施，用于在即付即用（PAYG系统）中保持养老金缴款和福利的平衡。但是，该政策引起人们对更高退休金年龄工作能力的担忧。本文使用有关健康和残疾的最新劳动力市场数据，发现了在没有必要的健康改善的情况下可以将退休年龄提高多少的限制。如果即将有所改善，则可以推迟计划的退休年龄。然而，