Amidst the more than 38,000 firearm related deaths in the United States annually, academic researchers, policy makers, and the general public often lack a basic understanding as to how elements of the physical environment work alongside socio-demographic characteristics of neighborhoods to influence the occurrence, prevalence, and spatial patterns in gun crime. Drawing on criminal justice, public health, and business databases in 2015–2018, we examine whether, and how, aggregate risk from the physical/built environment works independently and in conjunction with socio-structural features of neighborhoods to predict gun-related criminal incidents. Our results suggest: (1) a neighborhood-level measure of risk based on elements of the physical or built environment is associated with exacerbated levels of neighborhood gun crime; (2) racial heterogeneity/diversity and the concentration of disadvantage increase the risk of gun crime, as well; (3) both racial diversity and concentrated disadvantage condition the impact of the neighborhood built environment such that risk associated with the physical landscape is more strongly associated with gun crimes in racially homogenous and more affluent locales; and (4) the influence of the physical environment on risk of gun-involved criminal incidents is non-linear with a positive yet decelerating slope. Implications for gun violence stakeholders and the further development of research on neighborhood-level measures of risk from the physical built environment are discussed.

在美国，每年有38,000多起与枪支有关的死亡事件，学术研究人员，政策制定者和公众通常对物理环境的要素以及邻里的社会人口统计学特征如何影响该事件的发生缺乏基本的了解，枪支犯罪的流行率和空间格局。利用2015-2018年的刑事司法，公共卫生和商业数据库，我们研究了来自物理/建筑环境的总风险是否以及如何独立发挥作用，并结合社区的社会结构特征来预测与枪支有关的犯罪事件。我们的结果表明：（1）基于物理或建筑环境要素的邻里级别风险度量与邻里枪支犯罪的加剧水平相关；（2）种族异质性/多样性和不利条件的集中也增加了枪支犯罪的风险；（3）种族多样性和弱势群体集中条件都影响了邻里建筑环境的影响，从而使与自然景观相关的风险与种族同质和较富裕地区的枪支犯罪更加密切相关；（4）物理环境对涉及枪支犯罪事件风险的影响是非线性的，且具有正但减速的斜率。讨论了对枪支暴力利益相关者的影响以及对物理构建环境中邻域级别风险度量的研究的进一步发展。（3）种族多样性和弱势群体集中条件都影响了邻里建筑环境的影响，从而使与自然景观相关的风险与种族同质和较富裕地区的枪支犯罪更加密切相关；（4）物理环境对涉及枪支犯罪事件风险的影响是非线性的，且具有正但减速的斜率。讨论了对枪支暴力利益相关者的影响以及对物理构建环境中邻域级别风险度量的研究的进一步发展。（3）种族多样性和弱势群体集中条件都影响了邻里建筑环境的影响，从而使与自然景观相关的风险与种族同质和较富裕地区的枪支犯罪更加密切相关；（4）物理环境对涉及枪支犯罪事件风险的影响是非线性的，且具有正但减速的斜率。讨论了对枪支暴力利益相关者的影响以及对物理构建环境中邻域级别风险度量的研究的进一步发展。（4）物理环境对涉及枪支犯罪事件风险的影响是非线性的，且具有正但减速的斜率。讨论了对枪支暴力利益相关者的影响以及对物理构建环境中邻域级别风险度量的研究的进一步发展。（4）物理环境对涉及枪支犯罪事件风险的影响是非线性的，且具有正但减速的斜率。讨论了对枪支暴力利益相关者的影响以及对物理构建环境中邻域级别风险度量的研究的进一步发展。