People worry that many COVID-19 decisions are not evidence based, but applying typical evidence-based management (EBM) in a pandemic seems difficult. A pandemic is characterized by uncertainty, high potential loss, time pressure, and competing values, all posing challenges to EBM. Drawing on events in government responses to COVID-19, this essay focuses on three issues: What should be considered as evidence in pandemic-like situations? How can we make evidence more accessible to decision makers in such situations? And, does evidence have a role in ethical judgments in a pandemic? The essay argues that EBM must be extended to address pandemic-like situations. The evidentiary standard should take into consideration “appropriateness,” “reasonableness,” and “intuition,” paying attention to the stages of a pandemic and the type of errors we want to avoid. In addition, the essay calls for building policy capacity in terms of coproducing and applying evidence in and outside government, as well as strengthening public managers’ capacity in evidence-based ethical analysis.

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关于循证管理，COVID-19 能告诉我们什么？

人们担心，许多 COVID-19 决定都不是基于证据的，但在大流行中应用典型的循证管理 (EBM) 似乎很困难。大流行的特点是不确定性、潜在损失高、时间压力和价值竞争，所有这些都对 EBM 构成了挑战。本文借鉴政府对 COVID-19 的反应事件，重点关注三个问题：在类似大流行的情况下，应将什么视为证据？在这种情况下，我们如何让决策者更容易获得证据？而且，证据在大流行的伦理判断中是否起作用？这篇文章认为，必须扩展 EBM 以解决类似大流行的情况。证据标准应考虑“适当性”、“合理性”和“直觉、”关注大流行的阶段以及我们想要避免的错误类型。此外，本文呼吁在政府内外共同产生和应用证据方面建立政策能力，并加强公共管理者在循证伦理分析方面的能力。