International Relations scholars have long recognized the need to study the complex interdependencies of the international economy in order to understand the economic sources of national power and influence. Renewed interest in the patterns of international economic interdependencies and the structure of globalization has led scholars to a better, more empirically grounded understanding of the significance of complex interdependence for the evolution of international power. This paper examines the effect of one important and persistent characteristic of complex interdependence, American centrality within the international banking system, and argues that changes in the US financial cycle drive international financial volatility and crisis. These dynamics comprise the underbelly of American financial hegemony and pose a fundamental challenge to US leadership in the contemporary liberal international order. Financial stability is key to economic growth, which in turn perpetuates liberal political norms and institutions. Financial instability, on the other hand, breeds political discontent, which may take the form of populism or nationalism. The ability and willingness of the United States to reign in its own financial system may be key to ensuring that the liberal international system it established 75 years ago survives and thrives in the coming decades.

国际关系学者早就认识到有必要研究国际经济的复杂相互依存关系，以便了解国家权力和影响力的经济来源。人们对国际经济相互依存的格局和全球化结构重新产生了兴趣，这使学者们对复杂的相互依存对于国际力量发展的重要性有了更好的，基于经验的理解。本文研究了复杂相互依存的一个重要而持久的特征，即美国在国际银行体系中的中心地位所产生的影响，并指出，美国金融周期的变化推动了国际金融的动荡和危机。这些动态构成了美国金融霸权的底线，对美国在当代自由国际秩序中的领导地位构成了根本性挑战。金融稳定是经济增长的关键，而经济增长又使自由政治规范和制度永久存在。另一方面，金融动荡会滋生政治不满情绪，这种不满情绪可能表现为民粹主义或民族主义。美国统治自己的金融体系的能力和意愿可能是确保其75年前建立的自由国际体系在未来几十年中能够生存和发展的关键。滋生政治不满情绪，可能采取民粹主义或民族主义的形式。美国统治自己的金融体系的能力和意愿可能是确保其75年前建立的自由国际体系在未来几十年中能够生存和发展的关键。滋生政治不满情绪，可能采取民粹主义或民族主义的形式。美国统治自己的金融体系的能力和意愿可能是确保其75年前建立的自由国际体系在未来几十年中能够生存和发展的关键。