Previous scholarship on networked authoritarianism has examined an array of repressive legal and political strategies employed by regimes to constrain online political expression. How the tension between citizens’ desires to engage in online political expression and the possible dire consequences of doing so is resolved, however, is understudied. We address this lacuna by drawing upon concepts from risk and decision-making research and examining how the emotional and cognitive components of risk and decision-making shape citizens’ online political expression. Employing a three-wave panel survey of Turkish internet users collected over 8 months, our fixed-effects regression analyzes show that anticipatory emotions drive expressive behavior, but that risk assessment does not. Furthermore, the influence of negative emotions on online expression is moderated by individuals’ degree of regime opposition. We discuss the importance of understanding the psychological mechanisms by which networked authoritarian contexts influences citizens’ decisions to engage in contentious online speech.

以前有关网络专制主义的奖学金研究了政权用来限制在线政治表达的一系列压制性法律和政治策略。但是，如何解决公民参与在线政治表达的愿望与这样做可能带来的可怕后果之间的张力是如何得到解决的。我们通过利用来自风险和决策研究的概念并研究风险和决策的情感和认知成分如何塑造公民的在线政治表达，来解决这一空白。通过对土耳其互联网用户进行的为时8个月的三波面板调查，我们的固定效应回归分析表明，预期情绪驱动表达行为，但风险评估却没有。此外，负面情绪对在线表达的影响受到个人政权对立程度的影响。我们讨论了理解心理机制的重要性，网络独裁语境通过这种心理机制影响公民参与有争议的在线言论的决策。