Between 2000 and 2019, the number of inmates in Australian prisons grew from 21,714 in 2000 to 43,028 in 2019, an increase of 98%, or in per capita terms, 48%. Much of this increase occurred between 2012 and 2019. In New South Wales (NSW), for example, the prison population rose by 17% in the 11 years between 2000 and 2011, but then grew a further 39% in the eight years between 2012 and 2019. A similar acceleration in inmate numbers occurred in other States and Territories after 2011. In this article, we examine the contribution of sentencing, bail, policing policy and crime to the rapid rise in NSW imprisonment rates. We cite evidence showing that the likelihood of bail refusal has changed very little over the period when imprisonment rates rose, we find no evidence of a significant change in the length of sentences and no evidence of an increase in the likelihood of a prison sentence once changes in sentence-relevant factors are taken into account. Most of the increase in imprisonment rates appears to be due to changes in policing policy and (to a lesser extent) certain types of crime.

中文翻译：

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更严厉的量刑和保释政策是监禁率上升的原因吗？新南威尔士州案例研究

2000 年至 2019 年间，澳大利亚监狱的囚犯人数从 2000 年的 21,714 人增加到 2019 年的 43,028 人，增长了 98%，即人均增长 48%。大部分增长发生在 2012 年至 2019 年之间。 例如，在新南威尔士州 (NSW)，监狱人口在 2000 年至 2011 年的 11 年间增长了 17%，但随后在 2012 年的八年间进一步增长了 39%和 2019 年。2011 年之后，其他州和领地的囚犯人数也出现了类似的加速增长。在本文中，我们研究了量刑、保释、警务政策和犯罪对新南威尔士州监禁率快速上升的贡献。我们引用的证据表明，在监禁率上升期间，拒绝保释的可能性几乎没有变化，我们没有发现刑期有显着变化的证据，也没有证据表明一旦考虑到刑期相关因素的变化，被判入狱的可能性就会增加。监禁率的大部分增加似乎是由于警务政策的变化和（在较小程度上）某些类型的犯罪。