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Food and nutrition security under global trade: a relation-driven agent-based global trade model
Royal Society Open Science ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-13 , DOI: 10.1098/rsos.201587
Jiaqi Ge 1 , J. Gareth Polhill 2 , Jennie I. Macdiarmid 3 , Nuala Fitton 4 , Pete Smith 4 , Heather Clark 5 , Terry Dawson 6 , Mukta Aphale 4
Affiliation  

This paper addresses the highly relevant and timely issues of global trade and food security by developing an empirically grounded, relation-driven agent-based global trade model. Contrary to most price-driven trade models in the literature, the relation-driven agent-based global trade model focuses on the role of relational factors such as trust, familiarity, trade history and conflicts in countries' trade behaviour. Moreover, the global trade model is linked to a comprehensive nutrition formula to investigate the impact of trade on food and nutrition security, including macro and micronutrients. Preliminary results show that global trade improves the food and nutrition security of countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Trade also promotes a healthier and more balanced diet, as countries have access to an increased variety of food. The effect of trade in enhancing nutrition security, with an adequate supply of macro and micronutrients, is universal across nutrients and countries. As researchers call for a holistic and multifactorial approach to food security and climate change (Hammond and Dubé 2012 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA109, 12 356–12 363. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0913003109)), the paper is one of the first to develop an integrated framework that consists of socio-economic, geopolitical, nutrition, environmental and agri-food systems to tackle these global challenges. Given the ongoing events of Brexit, the US–China trade war and the global COVID-19 pandemic, the paper will provide valuable insights on the role of trade in improving the food and nutrition security across countries.



中文翻译:

全球贸易下的粮食和营养安全:基于关系驱动的基于代理的全球贸易模型

本文通过建立以经验为基础,以关系为驱动力的基于主体的全球贸易模型,解决了全球贸易和粮食安全中高度相关和及时的问题。与文献中大多数价格驱动的贸易模型相反,基于关系驱动的基于代理的全球贸易模型侧重于关系因素的作用,例如信任,熟悉程度,贸易历史和国家贸易行为中的冲突。此外,全球贸易模型与全面的营养公式联系在一起,以研究贸易对粮食和营养安全(包括大量和微量营养素)的影响。初步结果表明,全球贸易改善了非洲,亚洲和拉丁美洲国家的粮食和营养安全。贸易也促进了健康和更加均衡的饮食,因为各国获得了更多种类的食物。贸易在提高营养安全性的同时,提供充足的大量和微量营养素,在营养素和国家之间普遍存在。正如研究人员所呼吁的那样,对于粮食安全和气候变化采取整体和多因素的方法(Hammond andDubé2012进程 Natl Acad。科学 美国109,12 356-12 363(DOI:10.1073 / pnas.0913003109)),本文是第一个制定一个综合框架,包括社会,经济,地缘政治,营养,环境和农业食品系统的一个应对这些全球挑战。鉴于英国退欧,中美贸易战和全球COVID-19大流行等持续事件,本文将提供有关贸易在改善各国粮食和营养安全中的作用的宝贵见解。

更新日期:2021-01-13
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