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Development of calibrated tsunami evacuation models through real-world collected data: The case study of Coquimbo-La Serena, Chile
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science Pub Date : 2021-01-13 , DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/630/1/012005
Jorge Len 1, 2 , Erick Mas 3 , Patricio A Cataln 2, 4, 5 , Luis Moya 3, 6 , Alejandra Gubler 2 , Shunichi Koshimura 3 , Rodrigo Cienfuegos 2, 7
Affiliation  

Evacuation is considered the most important and effective method to save human lives in case of a tsunami. In recent years, significant efforts have been carried out to examine evacuation through computer-based models; nevertheless, challenges remain on examining the accuracy of these models in simulating real-world populations’ behavior. Along these lines, this paper uses a large call detail records (CDR) database to examine populations’ behaviors during a Mw 6.7 earthquake and tsunami evacuation in Coquimbo-La Serena, Chile, on January 19, 2019, and compare its outcomes with an agent-based model for the same case study. Results show partial correspondences between the model and the real-world data. While cell phone users’ rapid response to the emergency resembles the model’s assumption of rapid departures (alongside the rough evacuation direction), the evacuation rate of people in vulnerable areas significantly differs from the ‘total compliance’ (i.e. 100% evacuation rate) assumption of the model, which might lead to large human casualties in case of a real emergency.



中文翻译:

通过实际收集的数据开发校准的海啸疏散模型:智利科金博-拉塞雷纳的案例研究

疏散被认为是发生海啸时挽救生命的最重要和最有效的方法。近年来,为通过计算机模型检查疏散情况作出了巨大努力。然而,在模拟这些现实人群的行为时,检查这些模型的准确性仍然存在挑战。遵循这些思路,本文使用大型呼叫详细记录(CDR)数据库来检查2019年1月19日在智利科金博-拉塞雷纳发生的6.7级Mw地震和海啸疏散期间的居民行为,并将其结果与代理商进行比较相同案例研究的基于模型的模型。结果表明模型与实际数据之间存在部分对应关系。

更新日期:2021-01-13
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