Previous studies provide conflicting evidence on the degree to which Federal Reserve surveys of agricultural bankers provide useful information on the future direction of farm real estate values. We use unbalanced panel of responses from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey between 1993Q1 and 2019Q2 to empirically test adaptive, rational and extrapolative expectations. We find that respondents extrapolate recent farmland price experiences but are overly cautious, as observed farmland price changes tend to be greater than expected. This is the first study of individual farmland price expectations collected by Federal Reserve surveys of agricultural bankers.

中文翻译：

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农业银行家对农田价格的预期

先前的研究在美联储对农业银行家的调查提供有关农场房地产价值的未来方向的有用信息的程度上提供了相互矛盾的证据。我们使用1993年第1季度至2019年第2季度芝加哥联邦储备银行的土地价值和信贷状况调查的不平衡面板来对适应性，理性和推断性期望进行经验检验。我们发现，受访者推断最近的农田价格经历，但过于谨慎，因为观察到的农田价格变化往往大于预期。这是美联储对农业银行家的调查收集的有关单个农田价格预期的第一项研究。