One of the major challenges in agriculture is how climate change influences crop production, for different environmental (soil type, topography, groundwater depth, etc.) and agronomic management conditions. Through systems modelling, this study aims to quantify the impact of future climate on yield risk of winter wheat for two common soil types of Eastern Denmark. The agro-ecosystem model DAISY was used to simulate arable, conventional cropping systems (CSs) and the study focused on the three main management factors: cropping sequence, usage of catch crops and cereal straw management. For the case region of Eastern Denmark, the future yield risk of wheat does not necessarily increase under climate change mainly due to lower water stress in the projections; rather, it depends on appropriate management and each CS design. Major management factors affecting the yield risk of wheat were N supply and the amount of organic material added during rotations. If a CS is characterized by straw removal and no catch crop within the rotation, an increased wheat yield risk must be expected in the future. In contrast, more favourable CSs, including catch crops and straw incorporation, maintain their capacity and result in a decreasing yield risk over time. Higher soil organic matter content, higher net nitrogen mineralization rate and higher soil organic nitrogen content were the main underlying causes for these positive effects. Furthermore, the simulation results showed better N recycling and reduced nitrate leaching for the more favourable CSs, which provide benefits for environment-friendly and sustainable crop production.

中文翻译：

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未来取决于气候的农艺管理将如何影响小麦种植系统的产量风险？丹麦东部地区案例研究

农业面临的主要挑战之一是气候变化如何在不同的环境（土壤类型、地形、地下水深度等）和农艺管理条件下影响作物生产。通过系统建模，本研究旨在量化未来气候对丹麦东部两种常见土壤类型冬小麦产量风险的影响。农业生态系统模型 DAISY 用于模拟耕地、常规种植系统 (CS)，该研究侧重于三个主要管理因素：种植顺序、捕获作物的使用和谷物秸秆管理。以丹麦东部为例，气候变化下小麦的未来单产风险不一定会增加，这主要是因为预测中的缺水压力较低；相反，它取决于适当的管理和每个 CS 设计。影响小麦产量风险的主要管理因素是施氮量和轮作期间添加的有机物量。如果 CS 的特点是去除稻草并且在轮作期间没有收获作物，则必须预计未来小麦产量风险会增加。相比之下，更有利的 CSs，包括捕获作物和秸秆掺入，保持其能力并导致随着时间的推移产量风险降低。较高的土壤有机质含量、较高的净氮矿化率和较高的土壤有机氮含量是产生这些积极影响的主要原因。此外，模拟结果表明更好的氮循环和减少硝酸盐浸出以获得更有利的 CS，这为环境友好和可持续的作物生产提供了好处。