The aim of this paper is to study the consequences of a preference shock resulting in an increase in household savings in one country of a monetary union such as the Euro area. We study the macroeconomic effects of such a shock by developing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which describes a two-country monetary union open to the rest of the world. A key feature of the model deals with one specific dimension of financial integration, namely cross-border bank holdings of government bonds. We show that a negative preference shock in one country can have salient spillover effects on the rest of the union. Spillovers come not only from the financial markets opening-up, but also from the intensity of intra-union trade, and the response of macroeconomic (monetary and fiscal) policies.

中文翻译：

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欧元区的家庭储蓄和金融溢出效应

本文的目的是研究在一个货币联盟国家，如欧元区，偏好冲击导致家庭储蓄增加的后果。我们通过开发一个动态随机一般均衡模型来研究这种冲击的宏观经济影响，该模型描述了一个向世界其他地区开放的两国货币联盟。该模型的一个关键特征涉及金融一体化的一个特定维度，即跨境银行持有的政府债券。我们表明，一个国家的负面偏好冲击会对欧盟其他国家产生显着的溢出效应。溢出效应不仅来自金融市场的开放，还来自联盟内部贸易的强度，以及宏观经济（货币和财政）政策的反应。