Seasonal prediction is one important element in a seamless prediction chain between weather forecasts and climate projections. After several years of development in collaboration with Universität Hamburg and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the Deutscher Wetterdienst performs operational seasonal forecasts since 2016 with the German Climate Forecast System, now in Version 2 (GCFS2.0). Here, the configuration of the previous system GCFS1.0 and the current GCFS2.0 are described and the performance of the two systems is compared over the common hindcast period of 1990–2014. In GCFS2.0, the forecast skill is improved compared to GCFS1.0 during boreal winter, especially for the Northern Hemisphere where the Pearson correlation has increased for the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Overall, a similar performance of GCFS2.0 in comparison to GCFS1.0 is assessed during the boreal summer. Future developments for climate forecasts need a stronger focus on the performance of interannual variability in a model system.

中文翻译：

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德国气候预报系统：GCFS

季节性预报是天气预报和气候预报之间无缝预报链中的重要元素之一。在与汉堡大学和马克斯·普朗克气象研究所合作开发了数年之后，自2016年以来，Deutscher Wetterdienst便开始使用德国气候预报系统（现为第2版（GCFS2.0））进行季节性的业务预报。在此，介绍了先前系统GCFS1.0和当前GCFS2.0的配置，并比较了这两个系统在1990-2014年的共同后兆时期的性能。在GCFS2.0中，与北方冬季相比，与GCFS1.0相比，预报技巧有所提高，尤其是对于北半球，其中北大西洋涛动指数的皮尔逊相关性增加了。总体而言，与GCFS1相比，GCFS2.0的性能相似。北方夏季评估为0。气候预测的未来发展需要更加关注模型系统中年际变化的表现。