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Hourly Prediction of Phytoplankton Biomass and Its Environmental Controls in Lowland Rivers
Water Resources Research ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-13 , DOI: 10.1029/2020wr028773
Devanshi Pathak 1, 2 , Michael Hutchins 1 , Lee Brown 2 , Matthew Loewenthal 3 , Peter Scarlett 1 , Linda Armstrong 1 , David Nicholls 1 , Michael Bowes 1 , François Edwards 1
Affiliation  

High‐resolution river modeling is valuable to study diurnal scale phytoplankton dynamics and understand biomass response to short‐term, rapid changes in its environmental controls. Based on theory contained in the Quality Evaluation and Simulation Tool for River‐systems model, a new river model is developed to simulate hourly scale phytoplankton growth and its environmental controls, thus allowing to study diurnal changes thereof. The model is implemented along a 62 km stretch in a lowland river, River Thames (England), using high‐frequency water quality measurements to simulate flow, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, and phytoplankton concentrations for 2 years (2013–2014). The model satisfactorily simulates diurnal variability and transport of phytoplankton with Nash and Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) > 0.7 at all calibration sites. Even without high‐frequency data inputs, the model performs satisfactorily with NSE > 0.6. The model therefore can serve as a powerful tool both for predictive purposes and for hindcasting past conditions when hourly resolution water quality monitoring is unavailable. Model sensitivity analysis shows that the model with cool water diatoms as dominant species with an optimum growth temperature of 14°C performs the best for phytoplankton prediction. Phytoplankton blooms are mainly controlled by residence time, light and water temperature. Moreover, phytoplankton blooms develop within an optimum range of flow (21–63 m3 s−1). Thus, lowering river residence time with short‐term high flow releases could help prevent major bloom developments. The hourly model improves biomass prediction and represents a step forward in high‐resolution phytoplankton modeling and consequently, bloom management in lowland river systems.

中文翻译:

低地河流浮游植物生物量的小时预报及其环境控制

高分辨率河流建模对于研究昼夜尺度浮游植物动力学和了解生物量对环境控制中短期,快速变化的响应非常有价值。根据河流系统质量评估和模拟工具中包含的理论,开发了一种新的河流模型来模拟每小时规模的浮游植物生长及其环境控制,从而可以研究其昼夜变化。该模型在泰晤士河(英格兰)的低地河流沿62公里的延伸线实施,使用高频水质测量结果模拟了两年(2013-2014年)的流量,水温,溶解氧,养分和浮游植物的浓度。 。该模型令人满意地模拟了所有标定地点纳什和苏克利夫效率(NSE)> 0.7时浮游植物的昼夜变化和运输。即使没有高频数据输入,该模型在NSE> 0.6的情况下也能令人满意地执行。因此,当无法进行小时分辨率的水质监测时,该模型既可以用作预测目的,也可以用作预测过去状况的强大工具。模型敏感性分析表明,以凉水硅藻为优势种且最佳生长温度为14°C的模型对浮游植物的预测效果最佳。浮游植物的开花主要受停留时间,光照和水温控制。此外,浮游植物水华在最佳流量范围内(21–63 m 因此,当无法进行小时分辨率的水质监测时,该模型既可以用作预测目的,也可以用作预测过去状况的强大工具。模型敏感性分析表明,以凉水硅藻为优势种且最佳生长温度为14°C的模型对浮游植物的预测效果最佳。浮游植物的开花主要受停留时间,光照和水温控制。此外,浮游植物水华在最佳流量范围内(21–63 m 因此,当无法进行小时分辨率的水质监测时,该模型既可以用作预测目的,也可以用作预测过去状况的强大工具。模型敏感性分析表明,以凉水硅藻为优势种且最佳生长温度为14°C的模型对浮游植物的预测效果最佳。浮游植物的开花主要受停留时间,光照和水温控制。此外,浮游植物水华在最佳流量范围内(21–63 m3 s -1)。因此,减少河流滞留时间和短期的高流量释放可以帮助防止大水华的发生。每小时模型提高了生物量的预测能力,代表了高分辨率浮游植物建模的一个进步,因此,在低地河流系统中进行了水华管理。
更新日期:2021-03-05
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