The vast majority of statistically-based landslide susceptibility studies assumes the slope instability process to be time-invariant under the definition that “the past and present are keys to the future”. This assumption may generally be valid. However, the trigger, be it a rainfall or an earthquake event, clearly varies over time. And yet, the temporal component of the trigger is rarely included in landslide susceptibility studies and only confined to hazard assessment. In this work, we investigate a population of landslides triggered in response to the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake (\(M_w = 6.5\)) including the associated ground motion in the analyses, these being carried out at the Slope Unit (SU) level. We do this by implementing a Bayesian version of a Generalized Additive Model and assuming that the slope instability across the SUs in the study area behaves according to a Bernoulli probability distribution. This procedure would generally produce a susceptibility map reflecting the spatial pattern of the specific trigger and therefore of limited use for land use planning. However, we implement this first analytical step to reliably estimate the ground motion effect, and its distribution, on unstable SUs. We then assume the effect of the ground motion to be time-invariant, enabling statistical simulations for any ground motion scenario that occurred in the area from 1933 to 2017. As a result, we obtain the full spectrum of potential coseismic susceptibility patterns over the last century and compress this information into a hazard model/map representative of all the possible ground motion patterns since 1933. This backward statistical simulations can also be further exploited in the opposite direction where, by accounting for scenario-based ground motion, one can also use it in a forward direction to estimate future unstable slopes.

绝大多数基于统计的滑坡敏感性研究都假设在“过去和现在是未来的关键”的定义下，边坡失稳过程是时不变的。该假设通常可能是有效的。但是，触发因素（无论是降雨还是地震事件）显然会随时间变化。然而，触发因素的时间成分很少包含在滑坡敏感性研究中，而仅局限于危害评估。在这项工作中，我们调查了因2017年九寨沟地震（\（M_w = 6.5 \）），并在分析中包括相关的地面运动，这些运动是在坡度单位（SU）级别上执行的。为此，我们实现了广义可加模型的贝叶斯模型，并假设研究区域中整个SU的坡度不稳定性根据伯努利概率分布表现。该程序通常会产生敏感性图，反映特定触发器的空间模式，因此在土地利用规划中用途有限。但是，我们执行了第一个分析步骤，以可靠地估计地震动对不稳定SU的影响及其分布。然后，我们假定地面运动的影响是时不变的，从而可以对1933年至2017年该地区发生的任何地面运动情况进行统计模拟。结果，