Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most frequent natural disasters. Detection of changes in the characteristics of the rainfall events that can be regarded as triggering factor is therefore of primary importance for policy-makers, practitioners, civil protection units and others. This study evaluated changes in the frequency and intensity of rainfall events above selected empirical rainfall thresholds at the pan-European level. For areas classified as at least moderately susceptible to landslides according to the ELSUS v2 map (i.e. around 1.8 * 106 km2; around 37% of the area), changes were evaluated for the 1961–2018 period. The regional rainfall reanalysis data was used as input. Four different empirical rainfall thresholds were selected and changes in the frequency of rainfall events above the thresholds and their characteristics were analysed. The results showed that, on average, 14% more rainfall events above the threshold were recorded in the 1991–2018 period compared to 1961–1990 at the European level according to the selected empirical rainfall threshold. Moreover, several regions were found where frequency and intensity of rainfall events above the four selected global empirical rainfall thresholds were positive and statistically significant. These regions were for example Italy, Carpathian Mountains, British Isles and some other parts of Europe. Some of these areas are also regions where landslides susceptibility is high or even very high and where multiple landslides were recorded in the past. On the other hand, there are also regions where frequency and intensity of events above the threshold were negative and statistically significant. These regions were parts of Central Europe, Alps and Pyrenees. Also, in these regions landslides frequently occur. According to different empirical thresholds, no significant change in the frequency of rainfall events above the thresholds could be detected for around 50% of the investigated area.

中文翻译：

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泛欧水平滑坡起始经验全球降雨阈值以上降雨事件特征的变化

降雨引发的山体滑坡是最常见的自然灾害之一。因此，检测可被视为触发因素的降雨事件特征变化对于决策者、从业人员、民防单位和其他人来说至关重要。本研究评估了泛欧水平高于选定经验降雨阈值的降雨事件频率和强度的变化。对于根据 ELSUS v2 地图（即大约 1.8 * 106 平方公里；大约 37% 的区域）归类为至少中度易受滑坡影响的区域，评估了 1961-2018 年期间的变化。区域降雨再分析数据被用作输入。选择了四种不同的经验降雨阈值，分析了阈值以上降雨事件频率的变化及其特征。结果表明，根据选定的经验降雨阈值，与 1961-1990 年欧洲水平相比，1991-2018 年期间记录的高于阈值的降雨事件平均多 14%。此外，还发现了几个地区，其中超过四个选定的全球经验降雨阈值的降雨事件的频率和强度是正的并且具有统计意义。这些地区是例如意大利、喀尔巴阡山脉、不列颠群岛和欧洲的其他一些地区。其中一些地区也是滑坡易感性高甚至非常高的地区，过去曾记录过多次滑坡。另一方面，还有一些区域的事件频率和强度高于阈值是负面的并且具有统计意义。这些地区是中欧、阿尔卑斯山和比利牛斯山脉的一部分。此外，在这些地区经常发生滑坡。根据不同的经验阈值，50%左右的调查区域未检测到阈值以上的降雨事件频率发生显着变化。