Abstract

This article examines the patterns in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (North Korea’s) use of hostile rhetoric in its internationally-directed messaging. The article first places North Korea’s belligerent rhetoric in the context of that country’s capacity to threaten the US and its Northeast Asian allies; indeed many analysts worry that Pyongyang’s rhetoric represents a conflict escalation risk or even a casus belli. Following this, the article discusses the common explanations – irrationality/incompetence, lack of audience costs, inter alia – for why the North Korean regime employs such hostile rhetoric, and finds these explanations wrong or misleading. The main analysis section describes the results of a study of 10 years of English-language propaganda published by the KCNA (North Korea’s state news agency). A multiple regression model is used to test the relationship between North Korea’s hostile rhetoric and a set of independent variables. The statistical tests indicate a mixed correlation of North Korean rhetoric to the independent variables. One major finding is that there is no correlation between hostile North Korean rhetoric and the country’s kinetic provocations. The conclusion discusses the role that North Korea’s rhetoric plays within the country’s larger adversarial relationship to the US, South Korea, and Japan.

摘要

本文研究了朝鲜民主主义人民共和国（朝鲜）在其国际指挥的消息中使用敌对言论的模式。文章首先以朝鲜威胁美国及其东北亚盟国的能力为背景，阐述了朝鲜的好战言论。确实，许多分析家担心平壤的言论代表冲突升级的风险，甚至是起因。在此之后，本文讨论了为什么朝鲜政权采用这种敌对言论的常见解释，包括非理性/无能，缺乏观众费用等，并认为这些解释是错误的或误导性的。主要分析部分介绍了由KCNA（朝鲜国家新闻社）发布的10年英语宣传研究的结果。多元回归模型用于检验朝鲜敌对言论与一组独立变量之间的关系。统计检验表明朝鲜语修辞与自变量之间存在混合关系。一个主要发现是，敌对的朝鲜言论与朝鲜的动能挑衅之间没有关联。该结论讨论了朝鲜的言论在该国与美国，韩国和日本的更大对抗关系中所起的作用。一个主要发现是，敌对的朝鲜言论与朝鲜的动能挑衅之间没有关联。该结论讨论了朝鲜的言论在该国与美国，韩国和日本的更大对抗关系中所起的作用。一个主要发现是，敌对的朝鲜言论与朝鲜的动能挑衅之间没有关联。该结论讨论了朝鲜的言论在该国与美国，韩国和日本的更大对抗关系中所起的作用。