Abstract Do trade barriers help slow the spread of nuclear weapons? Supply-side controls on proliferation equipment and material are often dismissed as ineffective because nuclear weapons–seeking states can develop methods to circumvent the controls. However, these global export controls have important secondary effects. By creating barriers to trade, export controls force states to develop costly and inefficient methods that interfere with progress toward nuclear weapons development. Using case evidence beginning with the advent of the Nuclear Suppliers Group’s export control regime in 1974, I argue that the resulting delay and frustration can change leaders’ strategic calculations regarding the value of their nuclear weapons programs. These findings demonstrate that proliferation controls do slow the spread of nuclear weapons, both by delaying existing programs, and by decreasing the likelihood that leaders will make decisions to continue with, or even start, nuclear weapons programs.

中文翻译：

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挫折和延误：供应方扩散控制的次要影响

摘要 贸易壁垒是否有助于减缓核武器的传播？对扩散设备和材料的供应方控制通常被认为是无效的，因为寻求核武器的国家可以制定方法来规避控制。然而，这些全球出口管制具有重要的次要影响。通过设置贸易壁垒，出口管制迫使各国制定成本高昂且效率低下的方法，干扰核武器发展的进程。使用始于 1974 年核供应国集团出口管制制度出现的案例证据，我认为由此产生的拖延和挫折会改变领导人对其核武器计划价值的战略计算。这些发现表明，扩散控制确实减缓了核武器的扩散，