Abstract In theory, a fully functional quantum computer could break the cryptographic protocols that underwrite cybersecurity everywhere, which would be disastrous for national security, global trade, and civil society. Quantum cryptography, conversely, promises an unprecedented level of security, yet this benefit comes with some danger: revisionist actors with impenetrable communications might be able to conduct surprise attacks and covert conspiracies. In reality, neither of these threat scenarios are likely. Intelligence advantage in political competition depends on the interaction of technological infrastructure with organizational institutions. Robust cryptosystems can be undermined by poor organizational coordination, and careful security policy can compensate for technical vulnerabilities. Scientific innovation in quantum technology only affects one of these dimensions while potentially complicating the other. Even if the formidable engineering challenges of quantum computing can be overcome, signals intelligence collectors will still have to analyze a vast number of decrypts and deliver timely and relevant judgments to interested decision makers. The quantum networks of tomorrow, similarly, will provide little protection for complex organizations that have weak operations security practices. In the practice of intelligence, we should expect classical politics to dominate quantum computing.

中文翻译：

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揭开量子威胁的神秘面纱：基础设施、制度和情报优势

摘要 理论上，一台功能齐全的量子计算机可以破解无处不在的网络安全加密协议，这对国家安全、全球贸易和公民社会来说都是灾难性的。相反，量子密码术承诺了前所未有的安全水平，但这种好处也伴随着一些危险：通信不可穿透的修正主义参与者可能能够进行突然袭击和秘密阴谋。实际上，这两种威胁情景都不可能发生。政治竞争中的智力优势取决于技术基础设施与组织机构的相互作用。组织协调不力可能会破坏健壮的密码系统，而谨慎的安全策略可以弥补技术漏洞。量子技术的科学创新只会影响其中一个维度，同时可能会使另一个维度复杂化。即使可以克服量子计算的艰巨工程挑战，信号情报收集者仍然必须分析大量解密，并向感兴趣的决策者提供及时和相关的判断。同样，未来的量子网络将不会为运营安全实践薄弱的复杂组织提供多少保护。在智能实践中，我们应该期待经典政治主导量子计算。信号情报收集者仍然需要分析大量的解密，并向感兴趣的决策者提供及时和相关的判断。同样，未来的量子网络将不会为运营安全实践薄弱的复杂组织提供多少保护。在智能实践中，我们应该期待经典政治主导量子计算。信号情报收集者仍然需要分析大量的解密，并向感兴趣的决策者提供及时和相关的判断。同样，未来的量子网络将不会为运营安全实践薄弱的复杂组织提供多少保护。在智能实践中，我们应该期待经典政治主导量子计算。