Abstract What drives citizens’ attitudes toward external military intervention in a society experiencing armed conflict? From colonial Algeria to contemporary Afghanistan, conventional wisdom holds that nationalism is a critical source of opposition and resistance to such intervention. In contrast, we argue that the impact of nationalism on views of external intervention hinges on the strategic context facing the target nation. When the country’s principal threat is from the intervener itself, nationalism will indeed reduce support for outside intervention. But when the threat comes from elsewhere, nationalism will actually boost support for external intervention to defeat it. To investigate these dynamics, we use public opinion data from a unique survey fielded across Iraq in 2016 that includes questions about the military interventions against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant by both the US-led coalition and Iran, as well as a potential military intervention by Russia. The results are broadly consistent with our argument, showing that, unlike other factors such as sectarianism, nationalism pushes Iraqis to seek foreign military help from any quarter when deemed necessary for national survival.

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对外部干预的民族主义、威胁和支持：来自伊拉克的证据

摘要 是什么驱使公民在经历武装冲突的社会中对外部军事干预的态度？从殖民地阿尔及利亚到当代阿富汗，传统观点认为民族主义是反对和抵制这种干预的重要来源。相比之下，我们认为民族主义对外部干预观点的影响取决于目标国家面临的战略背景。当国家的主要威胁来自干预者本身时，民族主义确实会减少对外部干预的支持。但当威胁来自其他地方时，民族主义实际上会增加对外部干预的支持以击败它。为了研究这些动态，我们使用了 2016 年在伊拉克各地进行的一项独特调查的民意数据，其中包括有关美国领导的联盟和伊朗对伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国的军事干预以及俄罗斯可能进行的军事干预的问题。结果与我们的论点大体一致，表明与宗派主义等其他因素不同，民族主义促使伊拉克人在认为对国家生存有必要时从任何方面寻求外国军事帮助。