ABSTRACT

Predictive policing generally refers to police work that utilises strategies, algorithmic technologies, and big data to generate near-future predictions about the people and places deemed likely to be involved in or experience crime. Claimed benefits of predictive policing centre on the technology’s ability to enable pre-emptive police work by automating police decisions. The goal is that officers will rely on computer software and smartphone applications to instruct them about where and who to police just as Uber drivers rely on similar technologies to instruct them about where to pick up passengers. Unfortunately, little is known about the experiences of the in-field users of predictive technologies. This article helps fill this gap by addressing the under researched area of how police officers engage with predictive technologies. As such, data is presented that outlines the findings of a qualitative study with UK police organisations involved in designing and trialing predictive policing software. Research findings show that many police officers have a detailed awareness of the limitations of predictive technologies, specifically those brought about by errors and biases in input data. This awareness has led many officers to develop a sceptical attitude towards predictive technologies and, in a few cases, these officers have expressed a reluctance to use predictive technologies. Based on these findings, this paper argues that claims about predictive software’s ability to neutralise the subjectivity of police work overlooks the ongoing struggles of the police officer to assert their agency and mediate the extent to which predictions will be trusted and utilised.

摘要

预测性警务通常是指利用策略，算法技术和大数据对可能被卷入犯罪或经历犯罪的人员和地点进行近期预测的警察工作。预测性警务的优势在于该技术通过使警察的决策自动化来实现先发制人的警察工作的能力。目标是警务人员将依靠计算机软件和智能手机应用程序向他们指示应在哪里和向谁报警，就像Uber驾驶员依靠类似的技术向他们指示在何处接机。不幸的是，对于预测技术的现场用户的经验知之甚少。本文通过解决警察如何与预测技术互动的研究领域来填补这一空白。因此，呈现的数据概述了与参与设计和试用预测性警务软件的英国警察组织进行的定性研究的结果。研究结果表明，许多警官对预测技术的局限性有详细的了解，尤其是输入数据中的错误和偏见所带来的局限性。这种意识使许多官员对预测技术产生了怀疑的态度，在少数情况下，这些官员表示不愿意使用预测技术。基于这些发现，本文认为，关于预测软件具有抵消警察工作主观性的能力的主张，忽视了警官为主张其代理机构和调解预测将受到信任和利用的程度而进行的持续努力。