Abstract

With the rapid development of the global aviation industry, the number of aircraft flying in the airspace has continuously increased. Although aviation safety has been improved in the last several decades, many general aviation and a few commercial aviation accidents occur every year, resulting in fatalities and significant economic loss. Aircraft crash accidents not only cause fatalities of crew members and passengers onboard, but also seriously affect people and property on the ground, especially if the crashed aircraft falls into dense urban areas. However, unlike emergencies caused by natural disasters such as floods, hurricanes, or a terrorist attack, very little research looked into the potential consequences of aviation accidents to people and property on the ground from the view of urban planning and emergency management. The object of this study is to propose a model for identifying potential ground risk areas of aviation crash accidents. Different from studies in existing literature, actual flight trajectories obtained from automatic dependent surveillance—broadcast (ADS-B) data was introduced in this study and incorporated in modeling development. With the trajectory information, a GIS density analysis method was applied to obtain a regional aircraft flight-path line density distribution map and to model crash trajectories of aircraft falling to the ground if a crash occurred or aircraft malfunctioned in the air. Combining relevant socio-economic factors that are sensitive to disasters, a ground potential risk mapping model for aircraft crashes was built. Risk areas were divided into five categories indicating the crash severities of potential aviation crash-caused impacts. To demonstrate the research approach, the State of Florida is used as an example. The outcomes of the proposed model can be used by emergency management departments to develop management plans for better responding to potential risks and provide decision support for city managers on zoning and land use planning.

摘要

随着全球航空业的快速发展，在空域飞行的飞机数量不断增加。尽管过去几十年航空安全有所改善，但每年都会发生许多通用航空和少数商业航空事故，造成人员死亡和重大经济损失。飞机坠毁事故不仅造成机上机组人员和乘客死亡，而且严重影响地面人员和财产，尤其是坠毁的飞机坠入人口稠密的市区时。然而，与洪水、飓风或恐怖袭击等自然灾害造成的紧急情况不同，很少有研究从城市规划和应急管理的角度研究航空事故对地面人员和财产的潜在后果。本研究的目的是提出一个模型，用于识别航空坠毁事故的潜在地面风险区域。与现有文献中的研究不同，本研究引入了从自动相关监视广播 (ADS-B) 数据中获得的实际飞行轨迹，并将其纳入建模开发。根据轨迹信息，应用GIS密度分析方法获得支线飞机飞行路径线密度分布图，模拟飞机在空中发生坠毁或飞机故障时坠落地面的坠毁轨迹。结合对灾害敏感的相关社会经济因素，建立了飞机失事地面潜在风险映射模型。风险区域分为五类，表明潜在的航空事故造成的影响的严重程度。为了演示研究方法，以佛罗里达州为例。应急管理部门可以利用所提出模型的结果制定管理计划，以更好地应对潜在风险，并为城市管理者在分区和土地利用规划方面提供决策支持。