Abstract

This study advances scholarly debate on the impact of confidence and trust on flood risk perceptions using data from a random sample of 403 residents in New Orleans, a U.S. coastal city with hundreds of miles of levees to protect the city from flooding. The research focuses on several predictors including specific trust measures of local, state, and federal authorities, sociodemographic characteristics, and experience with flood damage. Using ordinal logistic regression, we find that residents who perceive the levee system as unlikely to protect their homes and the city are significantly more likely to perceive an increased risk of flooding. Previous flood experience, age, female gender, and race were also significant predictors of flood risk perception. In contrast to prevailing risk research that has found that general trust and general confidence negatively affect risk perception, our findings show mixed support for the hypothesis that higher levels of confidence and trust result in lower perceptions of risk. Our findings reveal the nuances of risk perception and suggest that specific notions of trust and confidence can have positive and negative influences on flood risk perception depending on respondent views toward flood protection systems and specific institutions and government agencies.

摘要

这项研究使用来自新奥尔良的 403 名居民的随机样本数据，推进了关于信心和信任对洪水风险认知的影响的学术辩论，新奥尔良是美国沿海城市，拥有数百英里的堤坝以保护城市免受洪水侵袭。该研究侧重于几个预测因素，包括地方、州和联邦当局的具体信任措施、社会人口特征和洪水灾害经验。使用序数逻辑回归，我们发现认为堤防系统不太可能保护他们的家园和城市的居民更有可能认为洪水风险增加。以前的洪水经历、年龄、女性性别和种族也是洪水风险感知的重要预测因素。与发现普遍信任和普遍信心对风险感知产生负面影响的流行风险研究相反，我们的研究结果显示，对较高水平的信心和信任导致较低的风险感知这一假设的支持不一。我们的研究结果揭示了风险感知的细微差别，并表明信任和信心的特定概念可以对洪水风险感知产生积极和消极的影响，这取决于受访者对防洪系统、特定机构和政府机构的看法。