Abstract

Instead of writing off the post-uprising period in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as a failed attempt at democratisation, this article argues that the region is still undergoing an ambiguous and contingent process in which democratisation survives as one likely path among others. From this alternative viewpoint, the uprisings have multi-faceted, complex and uncertain consequences that constitute the beginnings of a long-term transitional phase in which various forces of political development continue to coexist in competing fashions. We argue that amidst this ambiguous process, the uprisings have introduced game-changing dynamics with regard to democratisation. We further attempt to identify these dynamics and discuss the potential value of the post-uprising experience as an asset for regional democratisation. For this purpose, we underline at least three crucial aspects of the post-uprising experience regarding democratic development in the region: (1) the demonstration of the potential for political change, (2) the contribution to the democratic learning curve, and (3) the emergence of Tunisia as a ‘transition game’. This study aims to serve as a guiding analytical exercise in the study of democratisation within ambiguous political environments, such as the post-uprising MENA region, where identifying the direction of democratisation may prove difficult.

摘要

本文认为，该地区并未经历中东和北非起义后时期民主化失败的尝试，反而认为该地区仍处于模棱两可的过程中，其中民主化得以生存是其他途径之一。从这种可供选择的观点来看，起义具有多方面，复杂和不确定的后果，构成了长期过渡阶段的开始，在这一阶段中，各种政治发展力量继续以竞争的方式共存。我们认为，在这个模棱两可的过程中，起义在民主化方面引入了改变游戏规则的动力。我们进一步尝试确定这些动态，并讨论起义后经历作为区域民主化资产的潜在价值。以此目的，我们强调了起义后有关该地区民主发展的经验的至少三个关键方面：（1）展示政治变革的潜力；（2）对民主学习曲线的贡献；（3）民主的出现。突尼斯是“过渡游戏”。这项研究旨在作为模棱两可的政治环境（例如，起义后的中东和北非地区）内的民主化研究的指导性分析活动，在该地区，确定民主化的方向可能会很困难。