ABSTRACT

While recent international negotiations about combating climate change have led governments around the world to invest in R&D in the energy sector, funds allocated to R&D investment have remained limited during global economic downturns and dependent on national economic conditions. A systematic approach and strategic budget allocation are required to achieve various national energy policy targets. In this study, we describe the optimal investment portfolio for achieving energy policy targets in Korea based on three budget allocation criteria: past investment performance, expected future effects and additional investment risk. We outline the analytic hierarchical process by which policy target priorities are set, developing a market allocation model to analyse expected future effects and a system dynamics model to calculate the investment volume. The systematic approach suggested in this study can increase the efficiency of budget spending by helping governments make investment decisions based on clear criteria and the results of our quantitative analysis regarding government investment in R&D.

摘要

尽管最近关于应对气候变化的国际谈判已促使世界各国政府投资于能源领域的研发，但在全球经济衰退期间分配给研发投资的资金仍然有限，并取决于国家经济状况。实现各种国家能源政策目标需要系统的方法和战略预算分配。在本研究中，我们根据三个预算分配标准描述了实现韩国能源政策目标的最佳投资组合：过去的投资绩效、预期的未来影响和额外的投资风险。我们概述了设置政策目标优先级的分析层次过程，开发市场分配模型来分析预期的未来影响和系统动力学模型来计算投资量。本研究建议的系统方法可以帮助政府根据明确的标准和我们对政府研发投资的定量分析结果做出投资决策，从而提高预算支出的效率。