ABSTRACT

We analyse the effects of bank wholesale and retail funding swings triggered by the real economy and foreign financial flow shocks, as well as the effects of the corresponding policy interventions in three emerging countries (Croatia, Montenegro, and Slovenia) throughout the boom (2007–2008), bust (2009–2010), and recovery (2011–2013) periods of the Great Recession. We find evidence that supply-side factors were crucial for the huge procyclical credit swing, and that the cyclicality of credits to firms was amplified the most. The paper also documents that policy contribution was of a second-rate order compared to funding effects. The effectiveness of macroprudential and other policies (standard macro, structural) in supporting the stability of financial systems is discussed, and external flow, policy, and regulation effects on the credit activities of banks are disentangled.

摘要

我们分析了在整个繁荣期（2007年至2007年），由实体经济和外国金融冲击引起的银行批发和零售资金波动的影响，以及三个新兴国家（克罗地亚，黑山和斯洛文尼亚）相应的政策干预措施的影响。 2008年），大萧条（2009–2010年）和复苏（2011–2013年）时期。我们发现有证据表明，供应方因素对于巨大的顺周期信贷波动是至关重要的，而且信贷对企业的周期性被最大程度地放大了。该文件还证明，与资金效应相比，政策性贡献是第二流的。讨论了宏观审慎政策和其他政策（标准宏观政策，结构性政策）在支持金融系统稳定性方面的有效性，并讨论了外部流程，政策，