Although the COVID‐19 pandemic resulted in about a 24% decline in India's GDP during the April–June 2020 quarter, the nation's agricultural sector, somewhat surprisingly, seems to have done remarkably well. This paper examines whether the public transfer program Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY), announced immediately after the lockdown, benefited farmers in dealing with the COVID shock. Overall, 95% of the smallholders received support from at least one of PMGKY's four components. Direct cash transfers had significantly more impact than in‐kind transfer schemes. The result shows that farmers receiving cash transfers under PM‐KISAN, one component of PMGKY, were more likely to invest in buying seeds. In contrast, farmers receiving cash transfers under PM‐UY, another piece of PMGKY, were more likely to invest in fertilizer and pesticides. Finally, smallholders who received benefits from all four components of PMGKY were more likely to invest in purchasing seeds, fertilizer, and pesticides. Findings suggest the fungibility of public cash transfers from the recent PMGKY scheme is significant in alleviating credit constraints and increasing future investments in modern inputs.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19、政府转移支付和农业投资决策：来自印度北部的证据


尽管 COVID-19 大流行导致印度 2020 年 4 月至 6 月季度的 GDP 下降约 24%，但令人惊讶的是，该国的农业部门似乎表现非常出色。本文探讨了封锁后立即宣布的公共转移计划Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY) 是否使农民在应对新冠疫情冲击时受益。总体而言，95% 的小农户至少获得了 PMGKY 四个组成部分之一的支持。直接现金转移比实物转移计划的影响要大得多。结果表明，接受 PM-KISAN（PMGKY 的组成部分之一）现金转移的农民更有可能投资购买种子。相比之下，根据 PM-UY（PMGKY 的另一部分）获得现金转移的农民更有可能投资化肥和农药。最后，从 PMGKY 的所有四个组成部分中受益的小农更有可能投资购买种子、化肥和农药。调查结果表明，近期 PMGKY 计划的公共现金转移的可替代性对于缓解信贷约束和增加现代投入的未来投资具有重要意义。