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Modeling the flight departure delay using survival analysis in South Korea
Journal of Air Transport Management ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-09 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101996
Myeonghyeon Kim , Jiheon Bae

The air transportation industry in South Korea has been growing since the 2000s. Although the number of air passengers has continuously increased, the flight delay rate has fluctuated from year to year. In this study, a survival analysis was conducted to compare each flight delay in terms of airport/time slot and to evaluate the actual impacts of major variables on flight delays. We performed multiple analyses using survival analysis methodologies, including the Kaplan–Meier estimator, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards model. In particular, we applied a turnaround buffer as a key variable in Cox proportional hazards model analysis. The survival curve showed that more international flights departed earlier than scheduled or with minimal delay than domestic flights. However, international flights tended to have more long-term delays. The log-rank test indicated that international flights had a wider distribution of delay times than domestic flights. In the Cox proportional hazards analysis, under the condition in which the actual flight turnaround time was less than 120 min, the results indicated that the longer the actual turnaround buffer was, the less frequently the delays occurred. By using these analyses, we could numerically verify the actual delay trends in South Korea. The results can be used as fundamental resources for political and economic decision-making processes in the aviation industry.



中文翻译:

使用生存分析在韩国模拟航班起飞延误

自2000年代以来,韩国的航空运输业一直在增长。尽管航空旅客的人数不断增加,但航班延误率每年都在波动。在这项研究中,进行了生存分析,以根据机场/时隙比较每个航班延误,并评估主要变量对航班延误的实际影响。我们使用生存分析方法进行了多种分析,包括Kaplan-Meier估计器,对数秩检验和Cox比例风险模型。特别是,在Cox比例风险模型分析中,我们应用了周转缓冲区作为关键变量。生存曲线表明,有更多的国际航班比原定航班起飞得早,或比国内航班延误最少。但是,国际航班往往会有更多的长期延误。对数秩检验表明,国际航班的延误时间分布比国内航班宽。在Cox比例风险分析中,在实际飞行周转时间少于120分钟的条件下,结果表明,实际周转缓冲区越长,延迟发生的频率就越小。通过使用这些分析,我们可以用数字方式验证韩国的实际延迟趋势。结果可以用作航空业政治和经济决策过程的基础资源。结果表明,实际周转缓冲区越长,延迟发生的频率就越小。通过使用这些分析,我们可以用数字方式验证韩国的实际延迟趋势。结果可以用作航空业政治和经济决策过程的基础资源。结果表明,实际周转缓冲区越长,延迟发生的频率就越少。通过使用这些分析,我们可以用数字方式验证韩国的实际延迟趋势。结果可以用作航空业政治和经济决策过程的基础资源。

更新日期:2020-12-09
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