The “carbon curse” theory proposes that fossil fuel richness leads countries to have more carbon intensive development trajectories than they would otherwise. This article tests this theory at the subnational level through an analysis of the 50 US states. Drawing on energy and emissions data from US government sources, descriptive statistics and regression analyses show clear correlations between states’ production of coal, oil, and gas and higher carbon intensities. Evidence is also provided for four carbon curse mechanisms that drive this: extractive emissions, fuel-related crowding out, weaker incentives to invest in energy efficiency, and pressure to subsidize fuel consumption. These mechanisms highlight both new avenues of impact for supply-side climate policy and the difficulty of implementing it. Overall, this article makes the case for further attention to the carbon curse, which could serve as an important analytical bridge between supply and demand-side approaches to climate and energy policy. By demonstrating the likelihood of a subnational carbon curse, it also greatly extends the scope of its potential applicability. Countries that are not fossil fuel rich at a national level but have fuel rich subnational regions should also take heed.

“碳诅咒”理论提出，化石燃料丰富导致国家拥有比其他情况更多的碳密集型发展轨迹。本文通过对美国 50 个州的分析，在地方层面检验了这一理论。借鉴美国政府来源的能源和排放数据，描述性统计和回归分析显示各州煤炭、石油和天然气的生产与更高的碳强度之间存在明显的相关性。还为推动这一趋势的四种碳诅咒机制提供了证据：采掘性排放、与燃料相关的挤出、对能源效率投资的较弱激励以及补贴燃料消耗的压力。这些机制既突出了影响供应方气候政策的新途径，也突出了实施的难度。全面的，本文提出了进一步关注碳诅咒的理由，它可以作为气候和能源政策的供需方方法之间的重要分析桥梁。通过证明地方碳诅咒的可能性，它还大大扩展了其潜在适用范围。在国家层面上化石燃料不丰富但在国家以下地区拥有丰富燃料的国家也应该注意。