We analyse the effects of unemployment on the likelihood of having a first and second birth in Denmark. The existing studies on this topic have generated contradictory results, and have made a weak case for the exogeneity of unemployment to fertility. We suggest that firm closures constitute an exogenous source of unemployment, and adopt firm closures as an instrument for estimating individuals’ fertility responses. Using a life-course approach, we exploit unique administrative data from Denmark that include all Danish residents born in 1966 and followed between 1982 and 2006. The data contain monthly information about each individual’s employment status, type of employer, relationship status and partner’s characteristics; as well as very detailed fertility information, including on stillbirths and registered miscarriages. We find that unemployment has a positive effect on motherhood transitions and a negative effect on fatherhood transitions, although the latter is not robust to the inclusion of controls. We find no significant effect of unemployment on second births.

我们分析了失业对在丹麦生育第一胎和第二胎的可能性的影响。现有关于这一主题的研究产生了相互矛盾的结果，并为失业对生育率的外生性提供了薄弱的论据。我们建议企业倒闭构成失业的外生来源，并采用企业倒闭作为估计个人生育反应的工具。我们采用生命历程方法，利用来自丹麦的独特行政数据，其中包括所有出生于 1966 年并在 1982 年至 2006 年间居住的丹麦居民。数据包含有关每个人的就业状况、雇主类型、关系状况和伴侣特征的月度信息；以及非常详细的生育信息，包括关于死产和登记流产的信息。我们发现失业对母亲身份转变有积极影响，对父亲身份转变有负面影响，尽管后者对纳入控制措施并不稳健。我们发现失业对二胎生育没有显着影响。